One of the last major report on the state of the US economy on the eve of the presidential election ...
Today at 8:30 am ET, the US Department of Labor will publish a report on private sector employment in September. Against the background of pre-election promises regarding the creation of new jobs, higher wages and economic growth, the report - check the real situation. And it can be historical.What you need to know about the upcoming report on the US labor market?
1. Not bad, but not great expectations
According to the forecasts of economists surveyed by CNNMoney, the US economy created 175,000 jobs in September. If the forecast comes true, the data for the previous month exceed the figure of 155,000 for August.
The unemployment rate is expected to drop from 4.9% to 4.8%. This year, the figure had fallen below 5% for the first time since 2008. This is a clear sign of labor market recovery from the Great Recession.
Wages, according to analysts, increased by 2.6% compared to September of the previous year.
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2. 15 million new jobs?
If in September, the US economy has created about 51 000 new jobs, employment will increase to 15 million by the time to reach a minimum in February 2010.
This is what is often praised the Obama administration. If you do not take into account the sharp reduction in the number of employed people in 2009, created for the 10.6 million new jobs during the Obama presidency the economy.
3. Revised data for August
Today will be published data, not only for September. The Ministry of Labour will also release revised data for August.
4. At stake decision on interest rates Fed
Representatives of the Federal Reserve has repeatedly hinted about his plans to raise interest rates in December, if in the near future economic performance will be high.
At the moment, Wall Street estimates the probability of increase in December to 55%. A strong report on the labor market will be another incentive to do so.
Report on the labor market is one of the most important indicators for the Fed with regard to rate hikes. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said in May that the tightening of monetary policy during the summer it would be justified.However, after a disappointing report for May, Yellen and her colleagues "included back."
Based on materials WELTRADE