In forex trading last week gold prices XAU / USD fell 1.65% amid strong demand for "risky assets", after comments from ECB President Mario Draghi. Platinum and palladium svzi the increased demand for greenbacks also showed a downward trend: Platinum (XPT / USD) lost 1.28% Palladium (XPD / USD) closed the week minus 0.71%. S & P500 index on positive data from the United States closed by growth of 2.15%.
Forex Forecast for the week October 26 - October 30, 2015:
The price of gold XAU / USD forecast for the week 26-30.10.2015
There are three reasons for gold traders to open short positions.
Firstly, verbal intervention from Draghi October 22 sent the euro to a knockout, which caused vertical growth of quotations of the dollar index USDX, as the largest weight in the basket is assigned to the euro. Mario Draghi pointed to the high rate of the euro currency, which increases the risks for the recovery in Europe, the growth rate of CPI. Against this background, the "green" has received strong support in the fight against the currencies of the Eurozone, which resulted in the EUR / USD to fall in the currency market. The growth of quotations on the dollar for gold has traditionally been a negative factor, since the value of the metal is denominated in US greenbacks.
Second, continued decline in oil prices will help reduce inflation expectations in the G-7 countries that XAU / USD negative impact. In Vienna last week met the participants of OPEC and other major oil producers, to agree on a reduction in production quotas, they have not been able, despite the entreaties of active representatives of Venezuela. Moreover, two world leaders in the production of oil (Saudi Arabia and Russia) are very radically opposed the proposal. Some countries, such as Norway, Oman and Azerbaijan, generally ignored the event, citing a lack of need for adjustment of current world prices. Against this background, again probably worth waiting for increase in supply in the oil market, which will put downward pressure on oil and gold.
Thirdly, the growth in demand for "risky assets" negative factor for gold, as market participants consider the yellow metal as a "safe haven."
Recommendations for gold for the week: Traders should open sale Sell at XAU / USD to rise in prices for 1168/1178 to 1125 and Target.
Prices of platinum and palladium XPT / USD and XPD / USD forecast for the week 26-30.10.2015
By platinum group metals in the new week, traders should wait for the "bearish". Last Thursday, the application of the ECB determined in forex short-term trend for EUR / USD EUR / USD, and at the moment is likely to expect growth of quotations of the dollar index basket. Over the past week USDX added 2.59%, and is now possible price growth to the strong resistance of 98.42, which implies upside potential of 1.27% from the current levels. Since the cost of platinum and palladium are denominated in dollars, with an increase in US currency is a decrease in value. It is worth noting the general negative sentiment on the commodity market: the index CRB, which is calculated by the 19 quotations of goods, for two weeks in a row completes the trade bids in the "red zone" (general decrease in quotations on 4.78%). Investors are now pessimistic about commodity assets and therefore will consider other markets for investment.
Recommendations for platinum and palladium for the week: Traders of platinum is open Sell position for XPT / USD to rise in prices for 1010/1025 and record profits and Sell around 975 of XPD / USD on the growth of quotations to 704/721 and take profits around 661 .
Quotes S & P500 index forecast for the week 26-30.10.2015
In the last week of October to be expected of an upward trend in the US stock market for two reasons. Firstly, the release of the US GDP for the third quarter can please market participants positive data due to the high growth of the service sector and increasing household expenditure. The service sector, according to reports from ISM, in the third quarter showed a high growth rate that compensates for a slowdown in the industrial sector, against the background of stagnant oil sector, due to the low cost of "black gold". Household spending in the third quarter also increased by reducing the unemployment rate to its lowest level since April 2008, as well as the growth of average earnings. Positive dynamics is confirmed by the high demand for real estate market: if Americans believe in "the future", they actively carry out operations in the market. The only negative factor for the US economy - the revaluation of the national currency, which causes an increase in imports and reduces the competitiveness of exporters. Due to the growth of quotations of the dollar multinationals are serious losses. Companies like Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson reported for the third quarter of the high decrease in revenue against the backdrop of the revaluation of foreign exchange rates. However, the balance of trade is not a significant component of US GDP figures and the negative impact of this factor will not be as significant. Taking into account all factors, in my opinion can be expected to yield data within a range of 2.1% -2.7%, which is better than the consensus forecast, and will support the US stock market. Secondly, in the world there is still a strong demand for "risky assets". Leading stock indicators finished the last week of the planet a significant increase in prices, indicating the presence of a steady upward trend, which is very likely will go further than change its direction.
Recommendations traders SP500 week: traders should buy Buy S & P500 index in the reduction of prices to the 2067/2055 and Celma at around 2099.