By the fourth quarter of the oil market situation is positive. oil prices are high, in late September Brent crude hit $ 81 per barrel, of WTI oil traded near $ 72 a barrel. According to our forecasts, by year-end oil quotes continue the upward movement. Among the main reasons oil prices continued growth - OPEC deal + and the high demand for raw materials.
The agreement is valid until the end of the year, which means that a limited supply of oil from the cartel and the other participants. Moreover, in the aggregate country produces less than the set limit due to unstable production in countries such as Angola, Venezuela, Mexico, Libya and Nigeria. At the same time the demand for oil remains high - about 99 million barrels per day in the third quarter. According to OPEC forecasts, in the fourth quarter, demand will continue to grow and reach 100.3 million barrels per day.
the next meeting of the monitoring committee of OPEC + (10-11 November 2018) will be held in the first decade of November, which again can be affected by the issue of redistribution of quotas in response to falling production in the above mentioned countries and the sanctions against Iran, whose production is also expected to decline in the their background. However, restrictions will take effect in November, which means that the committee would not be sufficient grounds for the redistribution of quotas. Nevertheless, the rhetoric of the meeting will be very important and will definitely make speculators nervous, because the terms of the agreement coming to an end and the parties need to understand whether the cooperation will continue and in what format.
Meeting in Abu Dhabi could become a platform for any discussion. On changing the parameters of the transaction and on its relevance seriously speak at a meeting of OPEC in Vienna on 3 December. From this meeting it will be possible to wait for concrete solutions. According to forecasts of Alpari, cartel members and other participants in one form or another will try to continue to monitor the dynamics of prices by changing the production. The decision to continue the cooperation will be a major reason for the recent spurt top of oil prices this year.
Predicting oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2018, probably worth mentioning the US discontents current positive situation. Some experts consider the threat of Donald Trump as a real risk, but we do not seem so long. cartel members will pursue an independent policy, as the price of oil is directly dependent on the well-being of their countries.
Considering all of the above, we assume that the price of Brent crude oil in the fourth quarter will reach the level of $ 97-98 per barrel, trading range will shift within the range of $ 90-98 per barrel.
Forecasts oil Alpari