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Main » 2016 » September » 21 » Market Forecast 09.21.2016: The dollar may be supported
Market Forecast 09.21.2016: The dollar may be supported



raw materials market


Brent perked up at the end of trading session on Tuesday, as the American Petroleum Institute (API) published data confirmed a sharp decline to 7.49 million barrels compared to 1.44 million barrels the previous week. This gives reason to expect a similar dynamics and Energy report on the volume of commercial oil reserves that can reassure Brent for a while.





However, on Wednesday, all investors will be focused on the FOMC meeting on monetary policy, and the oil market is no exception. Recall that at a recent annual symposium Fed chief Janet Yellen confirmed that the conditions for increasing the interest rate became more favorable. Since Brentkotiruetsya in dollars, the connection between the dynamics of the USD  and oil is often reversed: the growth in demand for the dollar, oil will fall. Thus, it is not excluded that the closer to Brent meeting may sag in value with a probability of returning to the level of $ 45.00. / Bbl.


Rise and fall leaders on Wednesday



Currency market


AUD / USD 4 shows the growth of the last five sessions. The strong level of support in the 0.7450 area, coupled with positive economic data from China and the general weakening of the US dollar took their toll. Yesterday it became known that housing prices in China rose by 9.2% against 7.9% for the previous period. In addition, the published protocol of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia gave a fairly clear that the need for a further lowering of rates is not necessary, and it is likely that the rise any time soon. Thus, the basic position of a pair of pretty good, and now everything will depend on the tone of the FOMC. The market does not expect a rate hike, but is waiting for a hint of the accelerated pace of recovery of the US economy, which will increase the rate in December. If investors get similar hints, demand for USD will rise sharply. And the chances of such an outcome are quite large, considering the growth and long AUD / USD, which already requires correction. It is possible movement in the area of ​​0.7470.


USD / RUB  yesterday suffered small losses due to unfavorable oil dynamics. As we expected, after rising in Brent came correction, because all the factors supporting interest in the hydrocarbon disappeared. However, last night published data from the API still managed to cheer up the "black gold" and, hence, the opening of trading on the ruble may strengthen a little. By the evening of the Russian currency will be just two drivers: the publication of the US Department of Energy report on commercial oil reserves, as well as the FOMC meeting on monetary policy. Both events are potentially negative for the ruble, so it's possible the movement of USD / RUB to the area of 65.20 by Wednesday evening. 


Warning: Profitability in the past does not mean profitability in the future. Any projections are for information only and does not guarantee a result.


Source: GK Forex Club

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