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Main » 2016 » August » 22 » Investors. Short-term trading idea EUR / USD - bullish play: to increase the upper boundary of the triangle formation
Investors. Short-term trading idea EUR / USD - bullish play: to increase the upper boundary of the triangle formation



Trading opportunities for the currency pair:  apparent triangular formatsiya.Posle Brexitkurs euro / dollar rebounded to 88% on the weekly TF, of the decline from 1.1428 to 1.0911.

Last week, "evrobyki" punched trend line. It is believed that the euro will continue to be strengthened to 1,1525-1,1575 area. Reducing the rate below 1.1233 would be a bad signal for the buyers. In this case it is better to refrain from buying the euro while the price again rises above 1.1250. Weekly scenario will be canceled at the close of a candle below 1.1148.




The latest idea on the currency pair EUR / USD came out on 20 June. At the time of publication of the review, EUR / USD traded at 1.1274. The idea of ​​expected strengthening of the euro to 1.17 against the backdrop week pinbara, W-shaped pattern and that the UK remains in the EU.


Day pinbar load. The euro / dollar rose to 1.1428. The ending was not realized, because after Brexit euro fell to 516 points (-4.51%) to 1.0911. The course of the cross-pair euro / pound its growth eased pressure on the euro.When it became known that 52% of Britons voted for the country's exit from the EU, the correction phase started in the forex market.


Current situation

Today, the idea made in conjunction with the EUR / GBP cross. On the weekly chart, the euro / dollar there is an interesting technical picture. The euro / dollar recovered to 88% of the decline from 1.1428 to 1.0911. Last week, "evrobyki" punched trend line supported by a growing cross euro / pound.


Dotted lines I have outlined a triangular formation. Not sure it will be a triangle. At the current formation of the minimum 1.0462 high risk to leave to 1.1852. In this idea, I was limited to the level of the upper boundary of the triangle - 1.1575. The intermediate level will make the level of 1.1455.


Given that market participants expect the US Fed rate hike in December this year, the euro from 1.1575 sale look very attractive. If the rate in December will be raised, the lower boundary of the triangle formation is broken.



On Friday, the Commission on the futures trade in goods (CFTC- Commodity Futures Trading Commission) has introduced a new weekly report COT (Commitments of Traders). It has a cross-section of traders to open positions on 09/08/16 08/16/18. The forces between the parties to the futures and options market was as follows.


Large speculators (Non-Commercial): in this group was recorded an increase in Long-positions in 2143, to 91,471 contracts against the reduction on 4573 contracts a week earlier. Short positions decreased by 2931, to 197,208 contracts, compared with a decrease of 10,026 in the last week. Also increased the amount of counter positions at 4219 to 47683 in Spreading column. The net short position fell to 5875 (-4.57%), to 105,737 contracts.


Small speculators (Nonreportable Positions): in this group of traders put on the strengthening of the euro. Over the last week they increased at Long 5311 to 50087 contracts against their reduction to 4,320 the previous week. Short-positions increased by 586, to 66,859 contracts. The net short position fell to 4725, to 16,772 contracts.


Hedgers (Commercial): The group of participants in the last week reduced the Long position in 6566, to 248,833 and increased Short-positions in 3233 to 126324. The last report for 09.08 longs fell by up to -1993 255400, Short - at -1447 to 123091 .


In large speculators short positions opened two times more than the long. But this should not prevent the euro in the correction go to 1.1575 to sell higher before the December meeting of the US Federal Reserve. About 1.1575 should form pinbar or candlestick formation is bearish engulfing.


Figure 2. Weekly. Data source: Tradingview


The daily chart shows us vnutrinedelnuyu dynamics of the euro / dollar. The breakdown of the trend line occurred at the level of 1.1243 at the time of breaking the upper limit of the channel "2". If the top of 1.1415 to make a parallel channel line "2", then we get the target zone 1,1525-1,1575. What level and cancel the bullish scenario for growth to 1.1575, sellers should be returned to the course at 1.1148. After Brexit and weak US statistics will make it easy.


On Monday the market opened growth of the dollar. The current rate of the euro is trading at 1.1287 (-31 points or 0.28%). Key support recently pass through the level 1.1256 ( "2" channel). Reducing the rate below 1.1233 would be a bad signal for buyers, although the weekly scenario will be canceled at closing below 1.1148. I think "evrobyki" will buy euros to reach the estimated target 1.1575.


A source


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