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Main » 2016 » September » 12 » Investors prefer hard ASC s will be disappointed
Investors prefer hard ASC s will be disappointed



Investors who buy shares only, assuming that the bonds are too expensive (and yields are too low), may meet with great difficulties in the future - its opinion, Albert Edwards, global strategist at Société Générale - on AMarkets materials.





Many investors mistakenly guided by conventional wisdom and, by and large, illusory argument - they say that alternatives to shares in the current environment does not exist, so we would only buy shares. However, they forget to look at long-term trends and past experience.


Practice shows that the bearish cycle does not end until the economy will go through at least 4 of the recession.With the peak of the market in the 2000s, it took only two recessions. More needs to be 2 of the recession, no less. Last bottom for the stock market took place in March 2009 (drawdown accounted for more than 60%, if you count from October 2007). However, even at the time the shares were not quite so cheap, if you try to measure the fair value based on the dynamics of the securities over the past 10 years. Current Shiller PE of the index value for the S & P 500 now stands at 27. The long-term average - 16.


Albert Edwards has long promoted its ultramedvezhi looks at a broad audience. According to the expert, the deflationary process, conceived in Japan and actively propagated in the Western world, bear greater risk for the financial markets in the long term. It's like a time bomb. You do not know exactly when will collapse. But what will collapse - that's for sure.



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