Currency strategists predict a weakening of the USD on the segment the next few months. It seems the Fed decided against raising rates in the spring, leaving a "green paper" alone with the poor fellow - rising inflation - on AMarkets materials.
In recent months, the rise in prices in the United States is gaining momentum. CPI rose to 2.3% in the 12 months to February. This is the maximum gain, if you count from May 2012. My favorite measure of inflation, the Federal Reserve - the core index, calculated on the basis of consumer spending - moved up to 1.7% in the 12 months to February. This basic inflation rate does not account for the dynamics of prices for food and energy products. For the Fed target PCE - 2%. Inflation affects the purchasing price of USD. Logically, if prices rise, the currency depreciated. Since 2000, the main driver of growth was the USD value of the difference in the inflation rates in the US and Europe - the data Fundstrat Global Advisors.
While most analysts expects that the Fed will raise interest rates is not earlier than June. According to forecasts of Credit Suisse, the euro will rise to $ 1.17 against the dollar in the next 3 months. This is a minus 2.7% fall of the dollar against the euro. And by the way, not necessarily the Fed will raise rates if the PCE will reach 2%.The regulator could easily give yourself some more time for waiting. For the dollar - is, of course, the risk of a significant weakening. In the coming months, investors should be cautious on the opening of long positions in USD.