The European currency against the dollar continues to consolidate below 1.12, developing sluggish dynamics despite the surge of interest in risky assets on the background of the US decision to postpone the introduction of tariffs on Chinese goods until December. Growth of the euro continue to constrain the weak economic data from the euro area, indicating a significant deterioration of the economic situation in Europe.
According to data released on Tuesday ZEW research center, an indicator of economic expectations in August fell to -44.1 points from -24.5 in July. This is well below the forecast of economists polled by Wall Street Journal, the index is expected to decline to -30.0 points. ZEW current conditions index in August fell to -13.5 points from -1.1 in July. Economists had forecast a decline in the indicator to -9.0 points. Another portion of the weak statistics provoked another wave of talk about the need to further stimulate the economy through new ECB monetary instruments. Indeed, Mario Draghi plans for a farewell round of stimulus, before he retires, create more intrigue.
Analysts predict that the ECB will lower the deposit rate by 10 basis points to minus 0.5% at the meeting of September 12, picked up the trend for global mitigation. Only in the last few weeks we have already lowered rates The Federal Reserve and the central banks of the major economies, such as Australia, South Korea, Brazil, India, Indonesia and South Africa. Potentially even more pressure on the euro may have to restart the quantitative easing program, the details of which the ECB has also promised to submit in September. With that said, we are sure to maintain the "short" positions on the pair EURUSD.
EURUSD SellStop 1,1160 TP 1,10 SL 1,1190
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