SocGen - another forecaster at the club of adherents of the theory of complete 30-year rally in the US debt market. They say that soon there will be a reversal in the long-term bearish trend - based on AMarkets.
SocGen analysts see only a 1% probability that the 10-year US debt market falls below 1.1%. The probability is lower, the greater the chance that the Fed will raise interest rates in the foreseeable future. The Bank estimated that a fair rate of return for the 10-year notes - is 1.95%. SocGen calculation model assumes that Treasuries are still very overvalued and that global GDP growth was also overrated. This is possible because the authorities of all economies, without exception, fabricate data, overstating indicators (like the world conspiracy theory).
financial portal ZeroHedge Experts believe that all this prediction Societe Generale - from the evil one. The proposed bank scenario would be viable only excluding mnogotrilionnogo QE, whereby Federezerv bought a ton of 30-year sovereign bonds of the Treasury. The huge infusion of liquidity into the market, direct monetization of the financial segment - is always inflirovanie assets. Against this background, hard to imagine that rates could rise and bond prices fall. The future emerges in a different light - prices will rise, and rates will fall. The bottom line - the 10-year Treasury note has every chance to go into the negative zone.