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Main » 2016 » January » 27 » Houston, we have a problem: when to expect a recession in the US?
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Houston, we have a problem: when to expect a recession in the US?
 
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At the moment, the US economy is not in recession, but the fear that she was going to come rapidly grow t

 

 

According to the survey CNNMoney, the possibility of reducing the US economy is now 18%. This is almost double what was predicted a month ago. After the December meeting, when it was decided to raise interest rates, the Fed chairman Janet Yellen said that the probability of a recession in 2016 is approximately 10%.


And believe it? For the second year, the United States can boast steady growth of jobs, while the country's economy is expanding at a solid pace - about 2% per year.


"In the world there are many things that cause concern. But the economic situation in the United States not one of them "- says James Smith EconForecaster.com.


Despite this, risks are growing, and the pessimists are becoming bolder in their predictions. The stock market of the country is experiencing the worst start of the year; China's stock market continued to fall, pushing shares in Europe and Asia to the bear market.


While currently the US economy is "healthy", to paraphrase the poet John Donne: "No economy is an island." Do not forget about the ripple effect.


This month, US stocks traded in the correction, as investors do not believe in the growth of the value of shares in circumstances where China and many emerging markets are experiencing difficult times.


Analysts at Citigroup have voiced 65-percent chance of a US recession, which caused outrage even Janet Yellen, who called such predictions absurd. The stock market, as a rule, can not be the cause of the economic downturn.


Most experts believe that the key factor is the American consumer. As long as people continue to spend their savings, the US economy is expanding.


However, according to some economists, all is not well.


"US manufacturing sector is close to recession", - says Brett Ryan, chief economist at Deutsche Bank.


What will happen to the US economy, the dollar and China? Forecasts of analysts on the Forex market will become your support in the international market. 

 

A source

 
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