Gold finished the week on a positive note, registering at the end of Friday's increase of almost 0.97%. The main driver of bullish movement was the American dollar, which has lost in value about 0.3% against the publication of a very controversial for the US labor market report.
According to the data in the past month unemployment rate in the United States goes from 4.0% to 3.8%, and the average wage in February was 0.4% vs. 0.3%. But investors very disappointing data on the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sector, only 20 thousand. Against the forecast of 181 thousand. The publication of these data once again intensified concerns about the prospects for market development of the US economy.
In this regard, this week investors will focus even more attention to the publication of statistical data from the US, estimating the real state of the economy. On Monday it will be presented an important report on retail sales for January, which can have a very strong impact on the market. After an unexpected decline in December by 1.2%, in January, experts expect zero changes in sales volume. Also on Monday is scheduled presentation of the US budget for 2020, which was postponed due to the Trump shatdauna at the beginning of the year.
On Tuesday, the focus of the entire market will be another vote in the British Parliament on the proposed Theresa May Brexit plan. In the US, the central place in the economic calendar for the day take data on the consumer price index for February.
On Wednesday, the focus will be data on orders for durable goods and the producer price index.
On Thursday, investors will scrutinize a large block of important statistics from China, including data on fixed investment, industrial production and unemployment. In the US, it is worth paying attention to data on new home sales.
On Friday, the United States among the most important news is to provide only the data on industrial production for February.
On the chart of gold prices took out of the price channel 1284.00-1291.00, in which trading took place over four days. Yield was held up, which is a strong bullish reversal signals. Therefore, in the coming days we can expect the further development of the ascending wave and recovery in the gold price to a level of 1330.00. Changing priorities will happen after the breakdown of support at 1280.00.
Levels of resistance: 1299.00, 1310.00, 1320.00;
Support levels: 1296.00, 1290.00, 1285.00.
The main scenario - increase to 1310.00.
Alternative Scenario - consolidation below 1296.00 and 1290.00 to decline
Locally, gold receives strong support from a weaker dollar. The graph also received a strong reversal signal, which indicates a high likelihood of a bullish movement. Therefore, buying gold remain valid. The nearest entry point should look at the level of 1296.00.
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Based on materials FortFS