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Main » 2015 » November » 15 » Gold, platinum, the index S & P500: the forecast for the week 16 - 20 November 2015
Gold, platinum, the index S & P500: the forecast for the week 16 - 20 November 2015

Forex Forecast for the week November 16-20, 2015:

The price of gold against the dollar XAU / USD forecast for the week

Rate of gold last week, has set a new low for the past five and a half years, and now the price of metal hanging threat reduction to around $ 1000 / oz. Come to this price for the new week? Probably not, but in December, gold may test this level. The current market situation shows that gold should trade only on sales. Open long positions now quite risky. Sales in the oil market that we have seen in the past two trading weeks, will put downward pressure on inflation expectations in the G-7 countries.



 This factor is a negative for the stock of gold, as investors have traditionally used the asset as a means of hedging inflation risks. And since there is no inflation, then there is no need to buy the precious metal. It should also be noted that currently the oil factors, which could change the negative trend in the oil market. Stocks in the US rose for seven consecutive weeks, the amount of oil is in the three-month high, despite the high reduction in the number of drilling rigs operating. OPEC is not going to cut oil production and more than that, Saudi Arabia offer its customers some black gold at a discount to market prices. IEA has reported last Friday that crude oil inventories in the world make a record 3 billion. Barrels blame high volume production in Iraq, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Thus, the correlation between gold and the "black gold" in the medium term will be high enough and you can expect a decrease in quotations of both commodities. However, at the beginning of the trading week should expect growth of quotations of precious metal amid increasing geopolitical risks due to terrorist attacks in France.

Recommendations for gold: Traders in the new week is to sell Sell at XAU / USD to rise in prices of gold in 1105/1135 and take on 1078.



Forecast XPT / USD and XPD / USD:

At the beginning of the new week, traders should wait for the predominance of "bullish" on both metals on profit taking on short positions. Last week, platinum and palladium were among the leaders of the decline in the commodity market. Car sales at the end of October, the US and China rose to its highest level in five months, which is a positive factor for the platinum group metals. It presents the basic auto industry demand for metals and the growth of this sector will deter "Bears" from active sales. In this connection, we can expect growth of quotations on the XPT / USD to 920/945 and XPD / USD to 590/610. Further, in my opinion, the market will come back, "bears", which again will increase short positions at attractive levels. Positive economic data from the United States reinforces expectations of starting a cycle of raising interest rates by the US Federal Reserve.92% of academic economists, who were interrogated by the authoritative edition of The Wall Street Journal, expected to increase in the federal funds rate on 16 December of the current year. Investors open long positions on the Dollar Index (USDX) on short-term correction, based on the continuation of the upward trend of the US currency. This factor, in turn, is negative for metals, since their value is denominated in dollars. 

Recommendations for platinoids: Traders in the new week on the platinum group metals should not expect range trading XPT / USD within a range of 850 -910, and the flat for XPD / USD within a range of 531 -600.


Forecast futures on the S & P500 in the week

Traders on the index of the new week, there are two reasons for the predominance of waiting bullish sentiment.

First, players will continue to take profits on long positions. In the period from September 27 to November 6 quotes grew sales 6 consecutive weeks and once representatives FOMC began to declare a high probability of raising interest rates at the December meeting - investors have begun to actively sell securities in the US stock market. It is quite reasonable to take profits after a 13% rise in share price, and not to take on more risk.Moreover, the negative trend in the last five days was observed in all the world's leading stock markets, indicating that the global profit-taking, which usually lasts a few weeks, because the portfolio managers out of the position gradually, so as not to cause a rapid drop in prices.

Secondly, against the background of a significant imbalance between demand and supply in the global market for oil is also necessary to wait for lower prices that will have a negative impact on the resource sector of the US stock market and will help to reduce the stock indexes. But there is also a positive factor for the US stock market. Bearish sentiment in the commodities market in general and gold in particular have traditionally support stock markets. Against this background, it is not necessary to wait for a strong and rapid decline in quotations for the new week. 

Recommendations for futures SP500: Traders in the new week is to sell Sell at S & P500 in the rise in prices for 2042/2065 and Target at the level of 2005.


Alexander Goryachev
Analyst «FreshForex»
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