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Main » 2016 » February » 16 » Gold forecast: technical picture of the fall
11:59
Gold forecast: technical picture of the fall
 
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Over the past few weeks, gold has shown impressive growth and almost recoilless from the levels in 1070 reached 1260 dollars per ounce. Many movements for gold, taking place in recent years are due, rather, not kakimi-to specific fundamentals and increasingly tied to the psychological tendency of traders to take risks, then leaves him in conjunction with the mood on the stock markets.

 

 

In this regard, it is interesting to consider the technical picture for gold, because it is believed that technical analysis (on the relevant timeframe) shows the psychology of the "crowd".

 

So, on the weekly time frame gold is in a long-term downtrend channel (highlighted in purple), formed in 2013.Currently, the price steadily pushed off the top of the descending channel resistance lines, and because of the importance of this channel scale, I think, expect it to break, at least the near future, it is not necessary. Even if the price continued its upward movement, I think, at current levels would occur any consolidation and the formation of a technical picture for the continuation of the trend. While this does not happen.

{Weekly}

Moreover, on the daily timeframe, on the contrary, we are witnessing a reversal formation that is perceived as a thorn (highlighted in blue).

{Daily}

And in H1 scale at current levels is a consolidation (highlighted in yellow), which can be interpreted as a kind of "flag" or "ruler" - the narrow consolidation area to continue further downward movement. Therefore, at a minimum, another downward wave of gold can be expected the next day or two.

{H1}

The following trading recommendations you can offer in this regard.

Those who have opened long positions - their closure, one short positions - they hold.

Opening short positions from current levels.

Tight stop above the 1216-1217 USD. / Ounce.

Take-profits place based on Fibonacci levels from the upward movement (1070-1260) at the levels - in 1190, 1165, 1145 dollars / ounce.

In the breakdown of the price of the lower levels can not be ruled continued downward movement of gold in the longer term, and the current take-away up then can be interpreted as the demolition of stops before continuing falling prices.

Analysis Alpari

 

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