Results of the last trading day:
Since December last year, gold has risen in price 22% on the back of weak US data and the Fed delaying the rate hike cycle. According to the latest CME Group, the probability of a rate hike of 15% in June, in July - 29% against 33% the previous week. The longer the Fed keeps loose monetary policy - the better for gold. Gold Rally also maintained negative rates in most countries of the world.
In addition, gold is supported by the scandal with the bank Deutsche Bank to manipulate the price of gold. The Bank has agreed to testify against other banks, which are charged with creating a cartel on the market of precious metals. China established the Shanghai gold market, so gold will return to its fair price, which is above the $ 1,500 per troy ounce.
Market expectations for today:
I quarter proved to be successful for the yellow metal, but do not rejoice prematurely. Look at the price dynamics in the beginning of 2014, and the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015. After a rise in prices followed a sharp decline in prices.
Currently, the price reached the upper border of the channel (see. The weekly chart). Tuesday renewed dollar rally. Since gold and the dollar are negatively correlated, it is hard to believe that customers will be able to gain a foothold above 1307 (the high of January 2015). According cycles I get to roll back up to $ 1203-1206, then you can consider the rise in price of gold to the trend line in the area of $ 1340.
News of the day:
. At 15:15 MSK change in the number of people employed in non-farm payrolls from ADP in April
At 15:30 MSK Canada and the United States will present data on the trade balance for March.
At 16:45 MSK US - PMI (PMI) in the service sector in April .
at 17:00 MSK US - the volume of industrial orders in March.
at 17:00 MSK US - the index of business activity in the non-manufacturing sector from the ISM
at 17:30 MSK - crude oil inventories. Source: www.alpari.ru, «on gold It is expected to rebound from the upper border of the channel "