I look at the weekly chart of XAUUSD, and brings to mind the famous phrase from the Soviet cartoon bear. Slightly changing it, you can state a fact: Gold - a very strange thing. If the trend is, it is not right.
Let's take a closer look at the terminal and think together, and what prices are waiting for us on this noble metal before the end of the year.
As usual, I use exclusively technical and graphical analysis in their arguments. It does not take into account the fundamental analysis, correlation tools, economic and political situation in the country and in the world, and other non-technical factors.
Over the past two years the pair XAUUSD was within the "2-3" downward oblique channel. Along with the global framework, since the beginning of 2015 prices have changed within the "channel in the channel" ( "4" line and the "5"). The increase in prices began late last year, which at that time could be considered as a normal correction.
It could be assumed that the graph reaches the border "4" (quotation 1135.0) or, in extreme cases, to the border of "2" global channel skew (1245.0), and then start another price reduction in accordance with the long-term downward trend.
However, approaching the "4" line includes gold turbo mode ( «Z» zone), while 10 days hit "4", and updates the last line significant High ( «A" point). At a penetration significant levels have the right to stretch the Fibonacci levels between the latest High and Low (point "A" and "B") and to predict the price movement against the latter trend.
Strong piercing powerful level of 138.2% (1245.0), and, at the same time Resistance oblique channel "2", the schedule for 2 weeks rushing up and down as if not understanding, will be a continuation of a banquet or not, at the same time having to the last test High (1190,0). Then, perhaps, gain strength, gold reaches 161.8% (1280.0) and rests on the line "1", which is a "top floor" of the channel "2-3". This line has the right to life due to the parallelism to "2-3" and taking into account price changes in the areas of «X» and «Y» in the summer of 2012 and spring 2013
Bounced from "1", the schedule for the last 4 weeks overlozhivaet line "2", thereby introducing traders standby.
Where to go? Up or down? It seems that prices are back inside the "2-3" Global Channel and, in theory, should be a downward movement. But very much confused, "overlock" and the reluctance of candles quickly bounce down thereby demonstrating strength Resistance line "2". In addition, the schedule again closely fits on the bottom of the first week of April to "2", trying to break it. As one of my teachers, when asked his opinion, where the price will go - up or down, he replied: "I know that the price will go right."
So, as usual, we consider two versions of events.
Scenario for sale.
- At a penetration level of the upper yellow zone (1190.0) - 1st goal - the lower limit of the zone (1140.0);
- 2nd goal - the last significant update Low - 1050,0, level "A" point. Only after reducing prices below 1050.0-one can talk about the resumption of the global downward trend;
- Further price cuts will lead to a "Jubilee" price 1000.0. The same quotation confirms stretched Fibonacci levels between points "B" and "C" - 123.6%.
The script for the purchase.
- At the next penetration Resistance (the "2" line), and at the same time achieving the level of Fibonacci 138.2% (1245.0 ... 1247.0) - 1st immediate goal - retest 161.8% (1280.0);
- Upon further upward movement in the case of renewal of the global High (point D, 1300,0) - 1330.0 next target. And yet, even in this case, we can not claim to change the trend, t. To. 1330.0 at the same time is a strong level of correction 38.2% from the price movements from October 2012 to December 2015 (point " E "and" B "). I assume that at the level of 1330.0 schedule is delayed for a long time, testing its top and bottom;
- Further, optimistic hike up leads to a level of 1420.0, which is also the 261.8% of the movement "A to B", 50% of the "E-B" and support service price from the beginning of September 2013