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Main » 2018 » May » 3 » Fundamental analysis pair EUR / USD 03.05.2018
10:56
Fundamental analysis pair EUR / USD 03.05.2018

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In yesterday's trading the currency pair EUR / USD continued to fall. The dollar had positive data from the Automated Data Processing (ADP), as well as the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee.


At the meeting, which was held on May 1-2, the Federal Reserve System (FRS), as expected, left its benchmark interest rate in the range of 1.5% -1.75% per annum. This decision was taken unanimously.

 

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In an accompanying statement issued following the meeting, Fed officials noted that the higher inflation observed in recent years. It is expected that within 12 months the inflation closer to the target level of 2% in the control.


Also, the Federal Open Market Committee expressed satisfaction with the state of the economy and confidence in the economic outlook. US central bank sees risks to the economic outlook balanced, but from the text of the statement the phrase has disappeared, "short-term risks."


Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the immutability of the current course of monetary policy. The Fed will continue the cycle of gradual rate hikes. American Central Bank expects two more rate hikes this year, although the number of Fed officials, who did not rule out three more rate hikes, increases.


Most market participants expect that at the meeting of 12-13 June the Federal Reserve will hold another increase in the refinancing rate.


With regard to data from the ADP, and they even went out more than expected, indicated a slowdown in employment growth in the private sector.


So, in April the number of employees increased by 204 thousand persons compared to the March figure 241,000. Experts predicted employment growth of 200 thousand.


If you go to the technical picture, it must be admitted that the downside scenario continues to be realized by the market. The euro / dollar one after another breaks important levels, and the second day in a row completes under the technical and psychological level 1.2000.

 

H4 chart of EURUSD

 

I rebuilt the Fibonacci grid on yesterday's low, and now the tool is extended to reduce 1.2399-1.1937. Interestingly, the first level of the Runway of the movement is close to the level of 1.2050, which in itself is quite strong. This is to ensure that, if the area of ​​1.2050 will be rolled back, should think about sales, especially if in the area 1.2000-1.2050 will be bearish candlestick patterns.


Higher goals probable course corrections are in the zone of 1.2090-1.2135, where you can also consider selling eur / usd.


But shopping is not yet clear. However, yesterday's daily candle may signal the completion of the reduction and the beginning of the correction. Long been eyeing the spark of this form, and I can say that they are quite often deploy quotes. Thus, visitors can try buying at current market prices. However, do not forget that such positioning against the current downward trend, therefore, bears the risk.


Today's macroeconomic calendar rich enough. It is expected to publish a large block of statistics from the euro zone, where is to provide the consumer price index. American data may be noted the balance of trade and production orders.

 

Based on materials FFS

 

 

Views: 81 | Added by: mik | Tags: schedule eurusd, eurusd forecast, analyst eurusd, fundamental analysis eurusd, the pair eurusd, EURUSD pair, macroeconomic calendar | Rating: 0.0/0
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