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Main » 2018 » September » 18 » Fundamental analysis and technical forecast EURUSD 18.09.2018:
Fundamental analysis and technical forecast EURUSD 18.09.2018:


President Donald Trump announced that from September 24, for imports from China total value of 200 billion. Dollars, introduced a 10% duty.

In this case, if China responds mirror measures Trump does not preclude the introduction of tariffs on Chinese goods for another 267 billion. Dollars.


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So, talks negotiations and the introduction of regular tariffs - according to the plan.

Characteristically, the US dollar, which had previously received support from the aggressive foreign policy of the White House last fall, and now, as of this writing, continues to be under pressure.

Yesterday was published index of manufacturing activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which came out weak and failed to meet expectations.

However, I think that this data does not become the cause of the weakening US currency.

Even such strong signal, like a candle "bearish engulfing", which was formed on September 14 the daily chart of EUR / USD, remained without attention of market participants and did not practiced.

This factor indicates a negative sentiment towards the US currency and indicates a high probability of the downward trend in the US dollar.


EURUSD Daily Schedule




Judge for yourself. Model "Bearish engulfing" did not even try to start to practice. September 14 trades to close at 1.1622, from 1.1615 yesterday and the pair started an upward movement, and completed it at 1.1697, just below a key level 1.1700.

Currently EUR / USD is testing the breakdown strong technical level of 1.1713, and then the up to Friday's high at 1.1721 just around the corner.

If the EURUSD will maintain a positive attitude and the resistance strikes sellers at 1.1721. the following targets will be the levels of 1.1750 and 1.1790.

However, 200 exponential moving average, which extends at 1.1768, can also be attributed to the growth probable targets and potential resistance which eur / usd can meet here.

By the way, the 200 EMA on the weekly chart is at 1.1736, and it confirms the strength and significance of 1.1700-1.1790 price area.

As expected yesterday, the breakdown of 1.1790 EURUSD will open the way for the next important and strong technical zone 1.1850-1.1875.

Honestly, I do not know, that could lead to a radical change in market sentiment and the strengthening of the US currency. Of course, local bounces certainly will not do without it, but in general, the dollar is subject to sales.

The first alarm bell for the bulls on USD sounded even after the recent and relatively strong US labor market data. Even then it was clear that the potential of the "American" growth is very, very limited.

Based on the daily scale, the situation will change in favor of sellers after the breakthrough 1.1615, 1.1606 and 1.1600, with a mandatory fixing below the last mark.


H4 chart of EURUSD



What we see on the 4-hour timeframe once again shows how strong the current 1.1721-1.1736 resistance area.

On Friday there is enough there was a strong rebound, and now there is a similar pattern.

If the current candle H4 formed a bearish reversal pattern, you can try to sell neat little stop above 1.1721 and at least modest objectives in the area of ​​1.1640-1.1620, where just right to reflect nothing of the purchases.


Once again, I note that care under 1.1600 and consolidation below this level could put into question the implementation of the upward scenario.

On the other hand, the reluctance of the market to work out a bearish engulfing and persistent attempts to break above 1.1700 gives reason to expect the bull market of eur / usd.


Those who share this view, you can try to buy a couple of early, as an option, to decrease the levels of 1.1675 and 1.1660.

But with sales, in my opinion, should be more careful. The current situation is clearly not in favor of the US dollar.

From today's events it is worth noting the performance of the ECB Mario Draghi, scheduled for 11:15 (MSK).


During the US session will be published data from the United States.

At 17:00 (MSK) - the index of the housing market NAHB

At 23:00 (MSK) - gross and net volume of purchases of US securities



Based on materials FortFS



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