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Main » 2016 » February » 2 » Fundamental analysis and forex forecast 02/02/2016: The new season of the Greek drama.
Fundamental analysis and forex forecast 02/02/2016: The new season of the Greek drama.

Another series "Greek drama" is on its way. On the eve of the Athens began the work of inspectors of the international group of creditors (the IMF and the eurozone), with on the background of another wave of protests. One of the most pressing issues is the pension reform, against which just serve people on the streets with a rather rigid slogans in their hands. At stake is the start of negotiations - the further financing of Greece in the third bailout package (86 billion euros).



One of the main requirements of the IMF is to reduce the pensions in order to reduce the burden on the state budget. In other words, the IMF clearly do not want to allocate money to the Greeks to maintain social benefits.In this question lies the basic contradiction between the creditors and the Greek government, as Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras insists that pensions already been cut before, and employers' contributions to social security backgrounds has increased.
Furthermore, the claims of creditors put the government to a standstill. On Thursday scheduled a general 24-hour strike, which will be the third in a row for the current government. It became commonplace, and the demonstration of farmers in northern Greece, which almost every day for several hours, blocking the road.Accordingly, if in Athens will go to the creditors' claims, the protests will only intensify, and this will increase the risk of the release of MPs from the current coalition.
However, this time at the hands of the Greek negotiators have very powerful trump card, namely the refugee situation. Moreover, working with refugees conducted very efficiently at full strength soon earn special screening centers where staying will register and check. Since Germany is extremely interested in solving a number of issues with the migration crisis, and from the position of Berlin in the negotiations on the bailout depends on many things, you can output to a compromise to avoid unrest in Greece and the collapse of the government.
However, any decision would be highly problematic and painful for the population. Save the current level of payments will result in the need to increase taxes, but it will cause discontent and protests. Reduction of social security will lead to the streets had the most recipients of these payments. Against this background, a high probability of growth of activity by populist parties, which will only add fuel to the fire and bring to street protests more people.

The new season of the Greek drama. Fundamental review on 02/02/2016
In the short term positive background for Eurodollar difficult to call. On Tuesday it was announced that the producer price index (PPI) came in at -0.8%, with index goes in the "red zone" for the seventh consecutive month. Accordingly, it clearly reduces the risk of rolling back to the "negative inflation" - this is how the ECB is called deflation. Perhaps push eurodollar of the flat will be able to conduct current from Athens, if the negotiations would end without the explicit markets progress.
Stanislav Koval
Analytical department of the company RoboForex
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Forecasts of financial markets are the private opinions of their authors. The current analysis is not a guide to trade. RoboForex Company is not responsible for results that may arise from the use of trading recommendations submitted reviews.

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