For the EUR / USD pair failed series was completed yesterday, has six consecutive trading days closing with a minus. Prior to that, the pair showed similar dynamics of motion in September 2018, when for most investors, it became clear that the Fed will go to the four rate hikes within one calendar year.
The market was not important for makrostatistiki data, so the main impact on the trades provided news geopolitics and specific technical aspects. The main driver of growth was the intraday US dollar, which after eight days of steady strengthening went to the correction. Many experts say that one of the key factors of dollar weakness began new applications Trump, that the deadline of trade negotiations, which were to be completed on March 1 can be transferred. In this completely contradicts his statements last week, Trump stated the need for a meeting with the Chinese leader. During the entire 2018, investors viewed the dollar as the main defensive asset of aggravation of the situation in the world trade.
But in our view a key role in the formation of the corrective movement played a purely technical points on the dollar. The dollar index virtually recoilless grown for eight days and was locally overbought. On the chart of the dollar index highs have been updated in more than two months of trading, which has provoked a partial fixation of long dollar positions.
Today, the dollar index continued corrective decline. In this case, unlike the previous days, the influence of the auction will provide not only the geopolitical news, but also the economy. In Europe, today is expected to publish data on industrial production data. While in the US, investors await the publication of fresh data on inflation, which play a very important role in determining the monetary policy of the Fed. Previously, as one of the reasons for the suspension loop rate increases in U.S. cited insufficient inflation pressure. It is expected that the benchmark consumer price index in January fell from 2.2% to 2.1%.
On the chart EURUSD correction develops, after the formation of a false break of support level 1.1280. At the same time, despite the heavy price rollback retains a very high probability of resumption of the price movement down because the local bearish trend on the chart is not yet broken. To do this, one should wait for consolidation above 1.1350 EURUSD. So far this has not happened medium-term priority is the scenario with the resumption of movement in order to paired EURUSDna 1.1200.
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Based on materials FortFS