Despite a failed middle of the week, EUR / USD pair managed to complete five days of trading on a positive note and recover some of the losses.
The focus of investors were data on the US labor market, which could surprise the market. According to the report, the average wage growth in February was 0.4%, the forecast of 0.3%, and the unemployment rate decreased from 4.0% to 3.8%. But the main surprise for the market was the statistics on newly created jobs in the non-agricultural sector. The actual figure was only 20 thousand. Jobs, against the forecast of 180 thousand. These findings have led to the weakening of the dollar against most major world currencies.
On this week details the US and European economic statistics will remain in the focus of investors. Market players are trying to understand the perspectives of development of the two regions to assess the real value of the currency.
Today it is already published data on industrial production and trade balance in Germany. Both figures were worse than expected, which may limit the opportunities for further development of the correctional wave of EUR / USD. But the main event of the day today should be data on retail sales in the US in January, which will be presented at 12:30 (GMT).
On Tuesday, the European trading session the main market focus will be on the news from the UK, which will be published by a large block of important internal statistics, and will vote in Parliament on the draft agreement with the European Union, represented by Teresa May. In the US, the focus will be inflation data.
On Wednesday, the news from the EU will not be much. The main attention will be paid traders to statistics from the United States on orders for durable goods and the producer price index.
On Thursday, it is worth paying attention to the publication of consumer price indices for February in Germany and France, as well as data on new home sales in the United States.
On Friday, among the most important economic data calendar is to provide statistics on inflation in the EU.
Schedule EURUSD, despite the correction of the situation for the pair EUR / USD remains heavy. The tool retains some scope for further corrective wave, but globally dominant in the market remains bearish. Within days you should pay attention to the level of 1.1250. Prices rebound from this level to prioritize the scenario with a reduction to the level of 1.1200 and possibly towards 1.1160. In the event of breakdown of resistance at 1.1250 we should expect growth to 1.1300.
Resistance Levels EURUSD: 1.1250, 1.1300, 1.1350.
EURUSD support levels: 1.1200, 1.1170, 1.1100.
The main scenario EURUSD - the formation of topping formation at the level of 1.1250 and the decline in EURUSD quotes to 1.1200.
Alternative scenario EURUSD - the breakdown of the resistance 1.1250 and rising EURUSD rate to 1.1300.
Locally, the market remains high uncertainty, but the older time intervals is still dominated by the bearish trend. Therefore, the EURUSD instrument sales are still relevant. Coming on EURUSD pair of entry points can be sought at the level of 1.1250.
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Based on materials FortFS