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Main » 2019 » January » 8 » Fundamental analysis and forecast rate EURUSD 08.01.2019
14:24
Fundamental analysis and forecast rate EURUSD 08.01.2019

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It has been quite unusual, quite volatile and controversial trading week ended with the release of the controversial US labor market data.

According to information from the US Department of employment, in December, the average hourly wage increased by 0.4%, which is above expectations, which amounted to an increase of 0.3%.

 

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The number of new jobs, which appeared in the non-agricultural sectors of the US economy amounted to 312 000, although the projected increase of 177 000 jobs The data for November were revised upward, from 155 000 to 176 000.

Of course, these two measures, which were stronger than the forecasts were perceived positively by market participants.

 

 

On the other hand, in the last month of last year, unemployment rose in the United States. If economists' forecasts the unemployment rate should have stayed on the previous value of 3.7%, the actual figure is 3.9% led investors to think about.


As a result, the initial strengthening of the US dollar is very quickly replaced the sales of the US currency. Nevertheless it, at the end of week trading the dollar managed to strengthen against the single European currency at 0.38%.


Grown "American" and against the Swiss franc, but in pairs with other major currencies the dollar fell.


One of the most important events of this week will be the publication of inflation data from the US consumer price index, and especially on the base value of the index, which does not take into account energy and food prices.


Let me remind you that it is a basic value of the consumer price index is taken into account in the Federal Reserve more to determine trends in inflationary pressures and this will have a direct impact on the pace of tightening monetary policy in the short term.


Now let us discuss the technical picture of the main currency pair EURUSD.

 

EURUSD Daily Schedule

 

 

At the price range last week, in which the pair EURUSD traded 1.1477-1.1308 made. These values ​​were shown the maximum and minimum trading value, respectively.

 

The price of EURUSD closing was again below the important 1.1400 mark.

 

Yesterday the EURUSD rate rose to 1.1482, and today is even higher, up to 1.1484. However, further progress towards the north is still difficult because of the very strong sellers resistance, which takes place in the area of ​​1.1470 / 85.


As long as the EURUSD confidently overcomes the designated area and do not consolidate above, downward risks remain. However, the persistence with which the players continue to increase efforts to move up the course, indicates that the euro / dollar bullish scenario prospects remain relevant.


If the EURUSD will rush down and falls below the Tenkan and Kijun Ichimoku indicator, as well as a 50 simple moving average is likely to be held down out of the daily Ichimoku cloud, then the bears once again try to push through key support at 1.1300.

 

H4 chart of EURUSD


In this time frame is particularly well visible force EURUSD 1.1470-1.1485 resistance area, where this morning EURUSD pair rebounded again and at the moment the review is completed is trading near 1.1450.


The situation is complicated for bulls located in the area 1.1455 1.2413-1.1476 line resistance. Despite the fact that this line has already been postponed several times by the new second point, it is still strong and will not let EURUSD rate upward.


In my view, to keep growth prospects EURUSD, in the current situation it is necessary to hold above the nearest support, which takes place at 1.1430. If evrobyki cope with this task, probably one more testing resistance near the 1.1480 breakdown.


At the moment, I keep a positive attitude and expect the pair rise to 1.1500-1.1525 price area where will be decided the fate of eur / usd.


At the same time, I believe that in the current situation the most reasonable would be to wait.

 

Fundamental analysis EURUSD

Based on materials FortFS

 

 

Views: 16 | Added by: mik | Rating: 0.0/0
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