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Main » 2019 » May » 1 » Fundamental analysis and forecast rate EURUSD 01.05.2019 EUR / USD pair GROWS for signs of improving economic situation in the euro zone
Fundamental analysis and forecast rate EURUSD 01.05.2019 EUR / USD pair GROWS for signs of improving economic situation in the euro zone


Currency pair EUR / USD intraday yesterday showed good growth, with the publication of unexpectedly positive economic statistics from Europe and the ongoing correction of the dollar index.


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Despite a series of weak economic data from the EU's GDP growth rate in the 1st quarter of this year was higher than market expectations. The annual rate was 1.2% vs. 1.1%, and quarterly GDP change was 0.4%, versus an expected growth rate of 0.3%. Pleased investors and unemployment in EU data (index decreased from 7.8% to 7.7%), the inflation rate (increase by 1.0% while the forecast of 0.5%) and the change in the number of unemployed in Germany (-12 th . in the forecast -6 th.).



In the US, published on Tuesday, economic indicators also exceeded market expectations, but a strong deterrent for the US currency remains the FOMC meeting, and a report on the labor market, which will be presented on Friday. According to reports published yesterday consumer confidence index CB was 129.2 points, while the forecast of 126.0, and the data for the last month of 124.1. The index of pending sales in the real estate market was 3.8%, forecast 1.1%.


Today in Germany, France and other EU countries, a day off on the occasion of Labor Day, respectively, in Europe is not expected to publish important economic data.


In the US today, the monthly report from ADP will be represented by a change in the number of people employed in non-agricultural sector (growth rate is projected at 129 thousand. To 181 thous.), PMI manufacturing sector (expected to decline from 55.3 to 55.0 points). The central event of the day will be a meeting and a final press conference of the FOMC. Most experts agree that the regulator leave the main parameters of monetary policy unchanged, but the commentary regulator for further action can cause quite severe market fluctuations.


On the hourly chart the currency pair EUR / USD reached yesterday marked the target at the level of 1.1220, where the upward movement stopped. But, this morning, there are new attempts to buyers EUR / USD to overcome this mark. So far, no opposition on the part of sellers is not the euro, so in the first half of trading worth waiting for the further development of an upward movement towards the 1.1260 level, from where you can expect the development of a stronger recoil movement.


resistance levels EUR / USD: 1.1220, 1.1260, 1.1320.

Levels of support for EUR / USD: 1.1180, 1.1150, 1.1100.

The main scenario - growth rate EUR / USDk 1.1260.

Alternative Scenario - consolidation below 1.1220 and decreased EUR / USD to 1.1150.


On the EUR / USD chart there are prerequisites for the further development of an upward movement, so in the first half of the day, you can consider buying the pair EUR / USD, which stands close to the publication of important economic statistics in the United States.




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Based on materials FortFS



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