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Main » 2019 » April » 12 » Fundamental analysis and forecast rate EUR / USD 4/12/2019 POTENTIAL EUR / USD pair remains limited
Fundamental analysis and forecast rate EUR / USD 4/12/2019 POTENTIAL EUR / USD pair remains limited


The EUR / USD continues to trade in different directions while maintaining mostly laterally midweek movement.

Thursday trading ended in the red zone, -0.15%, against widespread US dollar strengthening, especially to raw currencies (0.6 to Australian dollar, 0.5% to NZD, 0.4% to Canadian dollar). Experts note that the main driver of growth was the good data from the internal statistics of the United States. The number of applications for unemployment benefits for the reporting week amounted to only 196K, which is the minimum value of this indicator since October 1969. The producer price index rose 0.6%, with an expected growth of 0.3%, increasing the likelihood of growth of consumer inflation in the medium term.


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European currency was nothing to answer. Published data on the consumer price index in France, Germany and other EU countries in line with market expectations, and therefore does not have a noticeable impact on the course of trading.

Today, the surprise of many, the market situation has changed dramatically. In the Asian session, the pair EUR / USD has demonstrated stable growth, recouping all the losses of the previous trading day. But, the main problem for the euro is that this growth has not been triggered by the influence of some fundamental factors, but rather was purely technical in nature. Therefore, the bullish wave, probably does not have a great development prospects in the second half of the day we can see the return of the price to yesterday's lows.

In the center of attention of the market today are data on industrial production in the EU (expected to decline by 0.5%) and the index of the University of Michigan, and investors will be closely watching the EU and US dialogue on the possible start of trade negotiations.

On the chart EUR / USD bulls once again managed to defend the support at 1.1250 from where the pair euro dollar bounced up to highs of more than two weeks of trading. But as long as we do not see clearly the price fixates above these levels, which increases the probability of forming a reversal pattern, in which we will see the return of the price EUR / USD to 1.1250 and possibly lower. Additional pressure on the EUR / USD pair will have the upper limit of the medium-term descending channel, which is now near are traded.


resistance levels EUR / USD: 1.1285, 1.1320, 1.1370.

Levels of support for EUR / USD: 1.1250, 1.1210, 1.1193.

The main scenario - reduction of EUR / USD rehcf to 1.1250 and below.

Alternative Scenario - consolidation above 1.1285 and the pair EUR / USD to 1.1320.


General fundamental background in the market for a pair of EUR / USD remains bearish, so preference is given to an intraday euro sales, which are looking at the level of 1.1285.  




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Based on materials FortFS



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