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Main » 2018 » May » 17 » Fundamental analysis and forecast of the pair EUR / USD 17.05.2018
11:27
Fundamental analysis and forecast of the pair EUR / USD 17.05.2018

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At yesterday's auction bears the main currency pair EUR / USD continued to dominate the market, but below 1.1800 it failed to close the trading session on 16 May.


In the first half of trading EUR / USD pair has been falling, but reaching a level of 1.1762, turned up and began to recover. However, the important price zone of 1.1822-1.1800 so far can not be breached, because yesterday was closed at 1.1807.

 

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Support for the US currency is once again rise in yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds higher than 3%. The single currency is under pressure on the background of political events in Italy.


In the second half of the session, amid galloping reduce yields on US government bonds, there was a short-term weakening of the US currency. Also contributed to this geopolitical concerns, namely: Prospects for US-North Korea Summit and the complex negotiations of the North American Agreement NAFTA.


With regard to the statistics published yesterday, it did not have a significant effect on price dynamics eur / usd, since, in general, came in line with expectations.

 
To complete the theme of statistical data, today saturated publications, with good intentions, can not be called.

At 15:00 (MSK) - a speech by the representative of the ECB's Vitor Constancio.

At 15:30 (MSK) - will be published data from the US initial claims for unemployment insurance, as well as the manufacturing index Philadelphia Fed.

In addition, performances by members of the Federal Open Market US Kashkari and Kaplan Fed Committee. By the way, both "doves."

 

Let's move on to the technical picture, which is made up of a pair euro / dollar, and start with the timeframe H4.

After yesterday, the EUR / USD rebounded from 1.1762, only managed to climb to 1.1837. All further - "the movement is prohibited." So it is possible to perceive the previous bullish candle, upper shadow is approximately twice as much of the body.


At the time of writing, EUR / USD pair is trading near the critical level of 1.1800. Bears on the euro are trying to push the price lower, but the bulls are trying to keep the euro dollar above this level. Judging by the current picture on the H4 will likely win the sellers, which means that the pair falling back below 1.1800 and will test yesterday's lows 1.1762 for their census. If that happens, we can expect decrease in pair in an important price area 1.1735-1.1700, where the market will try to bounce back up and a little to correct.


The alternative scenario is seen with difficulty, but if it will try to implement, do not rule out short-take-off in the area of ​​1.1880, where the euro / dollar may again turn on the decline.

 

EUR / USD chart H4

 

Based on materials FFS

 

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