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Main » 2018 » May » 28 » Fundamental analysis and forecast of the EUR / USD today, May 28, 2018
Fundamental analysis and forecast of the EUR / USD today, May 28, 2018


At the auction on May 21-25, the major currencies were mixed against the US dollar. In particular, the single European currency continued its downward trend, and against this background the main currency pair EUR / USD shedding 0.92%.

The main influence on the price dynamo euro / dollar in the FOMC minutes had last week, yields on US government bonds, as well as the political situation in Italy.


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At the same time, it is characteristic that the US president slurred position of Donald Trump relatively summit with North Korea, in fact, did not have on the US currency negative impact. If in the middle of last week, Trump, in fact, ruled out a meeting with Kim Jong Ynom, the May 25, there were reports that such a meeting could well take place.

At the same time, on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that obstacles to the calculation in the US dollar, undermining confidence in the world's reserve currency, the United States should ponder this.

Beginning of the trading week will be filled with the release of a number of important macroeconomic reports, of which it is possible and necessary to highlight the publication of US labor market data. For more on this and other events will be referred directly to the date of issue.

In the meantime, in view of ending a week, take a look at the changes that have taken place on the chart.


The graph EUR / USD Weekly



Based on the last trading the EUR / USD weekly chart there was another bearish candle, which has its own characteristics.

Attempts EUR / USD push up from the 200 exponential moving average, which has kept the fall of the previous week, were limited to 1.1829 already, then the pair reversed the decline. During the weakening of the EUR / USD were overcome obstacles in the form of the 200 EMA and the 89 EMA. When this was broken upper boundary of the cloud Ichimoku indicator and trading ended within it. As a rule, it is perceived as a rather strong bearish signals, suggesting a continuation of a downward trend.

If the data that will be received this week from the United States will not disappoint market participants and against the US dollar will not change, the EUR / USD will continue to decline, and his immediate goal would be important and significant support level of 1.1553. In the case of a true break of this level will open the way to the bottom border of the Ichimoku cloud, which takes place at 1.1215.

Before resuming the basic downward trend, there may be attempts to EUR / USD back above the 200 EMA (1.1756), that at the time of writing is observed. In my opinion, this should be used to open short positions. However, let's see what the picture is observed on the daily chart and if there is confirmation of sale near 1.1756 there.


The graph EUR / USD Daily



On the daily chart we are seeing a significant drop in the pair EUR / USD, with the rebound becoming weaker. Such dynamics indicates the strength of the bearish trend, which is confirmed by Tenkan Ichimoku indicator that takes more and more vertical position, following down the price.

Given that the Tenkan held at 1.1749 and it could have a strong resistance to the idea of ​​selling the euro / dollar after the rise in the price zone of 1.1749-1.1756, technically looks quite reasonable. In addition, in recent history, a couple of times unfolded near 1.1750, indicating that the effect of this price zone.

If the opening of short positions to consider a higher price, it is worth paying attention to the region of EUR / USD 1.1790-1.1830. However, the idea of ​​selling the EUR / USD from the area of ​​1.1749-1.1756 at the moment, it looks basic.

Buying EUR / USD, counting on a course correction, look risky, and good signal for opening long positions has not yet seen.

If you look at today's economic calendar, it is necessary to allocate the price index for housing and an indicator of consumer confidence in the United States.


Based on materials FFS



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