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Main » 2015 » October » 21 » Fundamental analysis and forecast of the currency market Forex 21.10.2015 (Forex4you): USD, EUR, GBP, JPY
Fundamental analysis and forecast of the currency market Forex 21.10.2015 (Forex4you): USD, EUR, GBP, JPY

Tuesday's session was not much different from the first trading day of the week. In the currency market again there was "complete calm". Major currency pair continues to consolidate in a narrow sideways against the backdrop of a lack of relevant data, and finished the day almost opening prices.


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The market almost completely ignored the message of economic statistics, which, by the way, published very little in all regions. With few exceptions have been news from the euro area to improve the conditions in lending, which led to a short pressure on the "green". Apparently, market participants are waiting for new guidelines and determined to wait until Thursday, when the ECB will announce its decisions on monetary policy.In addition, calls for caution and the approach of next week, because the last five days are scheduled Fed meeting (27-28 October) and the Bank of Japan (October 30). US news set issued information about the situation in the sector of housing construction in September. As shown by statistics, the number of buildings increased by 6.5% m / m, while the number of building permits, which are an indicator of the prospects, fell by 5% m / m. It had no effect on market developments. Not excited about the market and the speech of the Fed since D. Yellen did not comment on monetary policy and economic outlook. Today's publication in the United States is not planning to announce a major economic and political information. Ship news background and in other regions, which means that at the current session, most likely, there will be a sluggish trading in a range with a few short bursts of activity.


The European currency in yesterday's session, there was little support. Investors liked the results of the survey devoted to the ECB's lending in the euro area, which showed that the program of quantitative easing starts to bear fruit, improving credit conditions. It could set up to reduce fears that the ECB will expand the bond purchase program. However, the interest of the euro has been short-lived and by the end of the day, the European currency is almost back to their original positions. Obviously, the probability of increasing the volume of incentive on the part of the chief of the Central Bank of the Eurozone remains high, besides data on the economy of the European region, presented yesterday to the optimism did not have. Producer prices in Germany in September showed the most significant annual decline - the PPI declined by 0.4% m / m and 2.1% y / y, when the forecasts expected -0.1% m / m and -1.8% y / y, which adjusts to the ghost prospects of rising inflation. Reduced cash flow and the Eurozone - the positive balance of current account balance in August was 17.7 billion. Against 25.6 bln. Euro in July. Today's news background of the EU as shtatovskih, nothing important is not planning to publish. The European currency is likely to continue to "drift" in the dollar against the formed sideways, waiting for the news from the ECB tomorrow.


Events in the pair GBP / USD is no exception. In trading Wednesday sterling was no longer the leader and on the day fixed, even a slight decline. Short-term buy "cable" occurred against the backdrop of harsh comments of the Bank of England J. McCafferty, who said that the bank should start raising interest rates now, if he wants to further rate grew slowly and steadily. However, this rhetoric long supported the British currency. Obviously, the technical factors provided strong resistance level, and the confidence of investors that the "Old Lady" will not raise rates until the middle of 2016, played a role and put pressure on the pound. News of the British economy published yesterday, today will present data showing statistics about the situation in public finance.Public sector borrowing is expected to increase in September at 10.0 billion. +12.1 Billion pounds after. In August, indicating problems in the implementation of the government program aimed at reducing the deficit, and not a positive for sterling. This indicator typically does not stimulate the market for activities, unless there are no surprises. In this regard, we can assume the continuation of the sideways trend on the pair GBP / USD.However, the poverty of information flow surge in volatility is possible.


The Japanese yen fell against the dollar yesterday's auction. Obviously, the mood associated with expectations of another easing of monetary policy at the next meeting of the BoJ, which is scheduled for later this month, and the prospect of raising interest rates in the United States remains the main idea for the yen traders. Polls agencies show that the percentage of market participants who believe incentives on building volume increases.Today, Japanese statistics provided data on foreign trade in September. As it turned out, the trade balance remained in negative territory, when the expected appearance of surpluses. The foreign trade deficit amounted to 114.5 billion in Japan. Against 569.4 billion. Yen in August, the forecasts have been waiting 100 billion. Yen.


It is somewhat put pressure on the yen and the Japanese currency today against the US dollar again declined.This attitude can be maintained, but most likely, a large-scale pressure on the yen, after all, will not, the market will continue to wait for new, more meaningful benchmarks.


Author: Arkady Nagiyev

Fundamental analysis of the currency market Forex4you


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