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Main » 2015 » November » 20 » Fundamental analysis and forecast of the currency market Forex 20.11.2015 (Forex4you): USD, EUR, GBP, JPY
Fundamental analysis and forecast of the currency market Forex 20.11.2015 (Forex4you): USD, EUR, GBP, JPY

At the auction on Thursday, the dollar came under some pressure over the "front." "Green" sold against all of its major opponents, and by the end of the session the US currency recorded the slight losses against the euro, pound and yen. Obviously, confidence that the Fed will raise rates in December, supported the "buck" has recently declined, and investors decided to take profits.


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Apparently, this factor has been the main guide to action in yesterday's trading, as data on the US economy, which, however, was not much noticed positive results. The number of applications for unemployment benefits last week fell more than expected - on the 5 th. To 271 thous., When it is expected to see 272 thous., Report of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on business activity in the region has shown a much more positive trend than forecast - the index in November rose up 1.9 against -4.5 in October, with expectations of improvement to only -1.0. This indicator, which to some extent can be judged on the prospects, too grown up - new orders index to -3.7 vs. -10.6, and employment to 2.6 after -1.7 previously. Today shtatovskih Statistics nothing important has no plans to publish several more lively political component is represented by the performances of top managers Fed Bullard and Dudley. Speaking about today's prospects, most likely, on the eve of the Sunday holiday, investors will not increase the risk, and the market will again be observed range trading.


The European currency rose slightly against the dollar on Thursday's session. Support for the European currency is seen some increase doubts about policy tightening in the United States, as Information on the Eurozone economy gave out messages that might encourage divergent emotions. Report on the external relations of the Eurozone in September was positive - a surplus current account balance compared to August rose to 29.4 billion. Euros against 18.7 billion. In August. Increased, in the same month, and a positive balance of trade in goods are recorded 29.8 billion. After 22.1 billion. Euros previously. But the minutes of the last meeting the ECB held in October, brought unfavorable for the euro signals. From the contents of the document could be concluded that the main European Central Bank reiterates its readiness to extend the program to stimulate the monetary policy at the December meeting. Raised expectations of new easing in December, and the statement by the representative of the ECB P. Preta, who in his speech hinted at the possible movement of deposit rates even lower depth of the negative sector. Today's statistics European bloc is projected results which, if confirmed the facts point to a mixed trend in the economy of the European unit - the October producer price index (PPI) in Germany expected the continuation of the negative dynamics -0.2% m / m, -0.2% y / y after -0.4% m / m, -2.1% y / y in September, and a preliminary assessment of the November index of consumer confidence in the euro area is expected with a slight improvement - up to -7.5 vs. -7.7 in October. Naturally, the outcome may not be a support for the euro, and is likely to return to the single currency to decline. The political component of the day, too, is not conducive to positive expectations for the single currency - today by M. Draghi is likely to again be couched in "pigeon" colors, like all his make speeches recently.


The British pound also rose against the dollar in yesterday's trading, with its strengthening was somewhat more solid than the growth of other majors against the "bugs". Obviously, in this case, the main influencing factor were lower expectations lifting rates in the US Fed provoked content protocols, as market ignored the weak data on the economy, "islands", published in the last session. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics in Britain showed that retail sales in October were much worse than expected and once again fell below the average level - the volume decreased by 0.6% m / m and + 3.8% y / y versus + 1.7% m / m, + 6.2% y / y in September, when the forecast 0.1% m / m and + 4.9% y / y.

UK retailSal

We are not very encouraging and the data Confederation of British Industry (CBI), showed a decrease in the index of industrial production in November to -6 -4 against earlier and reducing orders indicator to -11 from -8 in October. Today, the British economic news will present the information indicating the situation in public finance. Public sector net borrowing is expected in October again with the addition of forecasted 6.1 billion. After 9.4 bln. Pounds in September. It is unlikely that this information has become a "stimulus for the market, obviously sterling again will consolidate sideways against the dollar.


The dollar / yen was lower in yesterday's trading. In addition to general market sentiment, formed under the influence of the content of the protocols Fed selling this pair were due to disappointment with the decision and even the Bank of Japan did not yet change in its monetary policy when a certain part of the market still hoped to hear about the capacity of leniency programs. The limiting pressure on the dollar could be a statement at a press conference after the meeting at the rate of the Bank of Japan H. Kuroda, perceived by investors as a hint of a possible extension of the incentives at a meeting in January. Today the pair USD / JPY is consolidating in a narrow range close to the opening price of the day in the absence of important data and sluggish trading on the stock market in Japan. It is possible, lateral trade this instrument will continue, as in addition to the lack of guidelines for restraint have coming weekend, before which the market is very rarely increases the risks.


Author: Arkady Nagiyev

Fundamental analysis of the currency market Forex4you


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