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Main » 2015 » November » 17 » Fundamental analysis and forecast of the currency market Forex 17.11.2015 (Forex4you): USD, EUR, GBP, JPY
Fundamental analysis and forecast of the currency market Forex 17.11.2015 (Forex4you): USD, EUR, GBP, JPY

Monday session the currency market was marked by a quiet trade, with some advantage of the US currency. Interest in the dollar based on the decrease in risk appetite. Demand for the "buck" rose amid reports of terrorist attacks in Paris. Data on the economy published very little in all regions, and their impact on market developments was minimal.


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The exception was the dollar / yen, which saw an increase, which was based on information about the signs of recession in the economy of the "Land of the Rising Sun", which increased speculation about the likelihood of a quick build-up of incentive measures by the Bank of Japan. As a result, the dollar, though not significantly, strengthened against all its opponents. US economic news was a report the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on business activity in the region producers. The release showed preserving reduction, but with a slowdown compared with the previous period - in November manufacturing index recorded -10.7 vs. -11.4 in October and -14.7 in September. It was worse than forecast, waited more robust improvement to -5. Today shtatovskih news package for more than the number of informative data. It is expected that the consumer price index (CPI) in October will rise by 0.2% m / m after -0.2% m / m in September, the base indicator (Core CPI), which excludes prices of food and fuel, too, will give an increase of 0.2% m / m, and the release of industrial production will remain the same, the September level, without noting the changes, 0.0% m / m


The index of the NAHB housing market in November, showing sentiment among builders, projected at 64, as in October. By and large, the dollar much support these reports are not expected, but did not hurt, unless you will surprise. Most likely, the "green" to keep the lead, as the market is now governed by the expectations of the Fed raising rates in December, when other Central Bank are set to further easing.


Euro opened the first session of the week began a sharp decline against the dollar due to falling risk appetite after reports of terrorist attacks in Paris. Later in the course of trading, the single currency, while, managed to align positions on the reports of stronger than expected, inflation in the region, but the result of the day was his actual decline against all opponents. Temporary support for the currency unit was the last score of the October consumer price index (CPI) of the Eurozone, which reviewed the preliminary results. The indicator was increased to 0.1% y / y, despite the fact that the previously recorded 0.0% y / y after -0.1% y / y in September. With the rise has been changed and core consumer price index - 1.1% y / y from 1.0% y / y. This revision of the index upwards caused, as noted above, only a short-term reflex reaction, because It is very little reason to believe that the leadership of the ECB will reconsider their position, to increase the quantitative easing program. Today, interesting data on the EU economy will again not much. The main event sees the publication of the German ZEW Institute report on business sentiment in Germany and the Eurozone. Forecasts suggest that in November, the index of economic expectations in the EU's largest economy rose to 6.0 from 1.9, and the light of current conditions improved to 55.5 vs. 55.2 previously. On the positive changes expected and the index of sentiment in the business environment of the euro area as a whole, the growth rate is predicted to 35.2 against 30.1 in the previous month. Perhaps this information, if confirmed by the fact, and to support the European currency, but as it seems for a short period of time. However, support the euro could become a technical factor, represented by the strong support, to which once again sank the euro / dollar.


The British pound also fell against the dollar in yesterday's trading. Obviously, some influence from France posts spread on the currency. However, the loss of the "cable" was not significant. Apparently, the stability of the sterling continues to provide its appeal as the most high-yielding currency among the majors. News on the economy, "islands" limited Rightmove report on house prices in the UK. The November index was recorded with a decrease of 1.3% m / m vs. 0.6% m / m in October, but with the increase in the annual comparison to 6.2% y / y from 5.6% y / y in the previous period. Comments to the report pointed out that the decline in prices is likely temporary, since real wage growth continues and the majority of Britons believe their financial situation stable and do not expect deterioration. Today's news background "islands" will be filled with important information for the pound, namely inflation data, which are one of the main indicators, which BoE adjusts its monetary policy. Forecasts suggest that there may be a slight increase in price pressures on the month in October, and the preservation of the negative result for the year - the consumer price index (CPI) is expected with the testimony of 0.1% m / m, -0.1% y / y vs. -0.1% m / m , -0.1% y / y in September.

UK infl

It is unlikely that this dynamic has the support of the British currency, the more that the indicators of inflation prospects are expected to remain fairly deep in negative territory. The index of selling prices of producers (PPI) in the value of -1.4% y / y, and purchasing -12.2% y / y. At best, the sterling will continue to consolidate the side against the "bugs".


The dollar / yen started to fall in Monday trading. Obviously, in this case, dealers were probably influenced by reports of terrorist attacks in Paris, to put pressure on risk appetite. However, the mood of the market changed after the data on the Japanese economy, showed a decrease in GDP of the second quarter in a row, a sign of a technical recession. This information continued to have an impact on the tool in the future because give rise to fears that the Japanese regulator might still decide to build programs of quantitative easing is already at the next meeting, which will be completed in the coming Thursday. Today the important news for the Japanese economy has not been published, the Yen continues to decline against the dollar is likely to lingering sentiment for "dollar" and optimism in the Japanese stock market, where the Nikkei grew by 1.22%. Shopping in the pair dollar / yen may continue today. True adjusting these expectations can make technical factors - the price again closer to the strong resistance level, which stopped its growth at the beginning of last week.


Author: Arkady Nagiyev

Fundamental analysis of the currency market Forex4you


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