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Main » 2015 » November » 5 » Fundamental analysis and forecast of the currency market Forex 05.11.2015 (Forex4you): USD, EUR, GBP, JPY
Fundamental analysis and forecast of the currency market Forex 05.11.2015 (Forex4you): USD, EUR, GBP, JPY

News background environment was favorable for the US currency, and the dollar rose against all its major opponents. Support for "green" had both the statistics and information policy plan. "Bucks" began to strengthen after ADP data on the number of jobs in the US private sector - report announced that the increase of jobs in October was greater than expected 182 thousand. To see the forecast 180 thousand.


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The baton was supported by news of positive results on the foreign trade of the United States, the trade deficit in September narrowed to 40.8 billion. With -48.3 bln. Dollars in August, when the expected reduction of up to -42.7 billion. More impressive than research analysts believed, turned and activity data US non-manufacturing sector - in October purchasing managers index (PMI) of the ISM instead of reducing to 56.8 rose to 59.1 from 56.9 in September. The final major chord were the statements of the Federal Reserve D.Yellen during testimony to Congress that strengthened the hopes of "bullish" on the dollar for an early, in December, the tightening policy. Today pack statnovostey less informative on the number of sensitive information, draw attention, apparently a record of the primary requirements for unemployment benefits last week. It is expected that the number of applications will be the same as in the previous period, 260 thousand. That probably will not change the mood of the market, which now give preference to the dollar, however, most likely, will not have much support, and if it is confirmed by the fact It will not be better than expected. But the political component can be an additional support "green" if the performance of top management of the Fed - Dudley, Fisher, Harker will tune statements Yellen and confirm a high probability of raising rates in December.


The European currency has been the most vulnerable in yesterday's trading. The euro fell against the dollar and the yen and the British pound. The pressure on the currency of the euro area have not only messages from the United States. News palette European bloc also reduced the popularity of the euro. The last estimate of indicators of activity in the field of service by Markit showed initial adjustment data to the downside in the whole euro area and Germany. The October purchasing managers index (PMI) for the services sector dropped to 54.1 from 54.2 in general on the block and up to 54.5 from 55.2 in the largest European economy. Accordingly were reduced and composite indicators, including also the data of the manufacturing sector. An indicator on the prospects for inflation in the euro area - the producer price index (PPI), also not arranged for optimism,because He remained in negative territory, showing a -0.3% m / m, -3.1% y / y after -0.8% m / m, -2.6% y / y. Today in the news package of the EU will be the most interesting data on retail sales in September in the euro area and the orders in the industrial sector in Germany. It is expected that the volume of retail sales in the euro area rose by 0.2 m / m and + 3.0% y / y after a +0% m / m, 2.3% y / y in August, and the orders in Germany rose by 1.0% m / m vs. -1.8% m / m in the previous period. The dynamics is positive, but it is unlikely this will have a strong support for the European currency, given that the market is definitely multi-directional policy is guided by the fact that the Fed and the ECB. Some support for the single currency may be technical factors, as the euro / dollar fell to a strong support level.


British currency against the dollar also sold at the auction of the medium, but in this case, the main factor was the pressure data on the US economy and the statements of the head of the Fed, because statistics on the economy, "islands" has given good results on the activity in the main field of the economy - the services sector.According to the company Markit, PMI (PMI) for the services sector in the UK rose to 54.9 October from 53.3 in September, when the forecast assumed that there will be a little less strong rise only to 54.5.


 This increase for the first time since June, could signal that the slowdown in the national economy in the 3rd quarter could be temporary. However, on a positive response was muted and short-term - after poskoku up, the pound quickly returned to their original positions. Obviously, the market is still waiting for the sterling main event, namely the announcement of the decision of the Bank of England's monetary policy, which will be today.Changes in rates is not expected, but investors still hope to get information on terms of the beginning of tightening, which can appear in a press conference the head of BoE M.Karni. Any hints from the British regulator's efforts to market speculation about a possible earlier start of the cycle recovery rates were not groundless will support the "cable".


The dollar / yen continued to rise and has risen to a new intraday high. Additional support for the dollar against the Japanese currency came from the United States by the economic data and speech by Fed. Today, the Japanese news tape has not published anything important. Obviously, the pair will continue to rise to the "leaven" of yesterday's information and waiting for data on the US labor market, which will appear tomorrow, and with good results expected for the "bugs". An additional impetus to buying "green" in the current session can give top management, and performance of the Fed, which will be performed during the American session.


Author: Arkady Nagiyev

Fundamental analysis of the currency market Forex4you


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