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Main » 2015 » November » 3 » Fundamental analysis and forecast of the currency market Forex 03.11.2015 (Forex4you): USD, EUR, GBP, JPY
Fundamental analysis and forecast of the currency market Forex 03.11.2015 (Forex4you): USD, EUR, GBP, JPY

The first session of the week was marked by the outbreak in the currency market sluggish uninteresting trade in narrow sideways. One reason for the low volatility has been the lack of important economic data in the news background Monday that deprived investors "irritants" can provide fresh guidance. Another factor, the slope of market participants in a waiting position, can be considered the prospect of a report on work in the US, which will appear in the coming Friday


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In these circumstances, the dollar has grown up very slightly against all of its major opponents. News of the US economy have presented the indicators of activity in the manufacturing sector in October by two different researchers - Institute for Supply Management (ISM) United States and the company Markit, which showed that indicators of activity in the sector remain in positive territory, and this testifies to the continuing strong growth of the economy. PMI index from the ISM is fixed at 50.1 when waiting reduce to 49.9, and the index calculated Markit was 54.1 against preliminary level of 54.0. However, this is marginally supported the "buck". Today's package also malosoderzhatelen shtatovskih information on the number of interesting messages will focus on factory orders in September that predicted a continuation of reduction by 1.0% m / m after -1.7% m / m in August.


If the facts are confirmed predictions, it can put pressure on the dollar more, because the figure indicating a certain extent, the prospects remain in the negative zone, below the annual trend.


The European currency in the last session, in fact, "beaten at the same level," and closed the day against the dollar almost on opening prices with a very small minus. News from the eurozone have shown good results. The last estimate indices of activity of the manufacturing sector in the region reviewed the preliminary results towards growth - the manufacturing purchasing managers' index for the euro area as a whole in October was raised to the level of 52.3 against preliminary level of 52.0, while the same figure in Germany amounted to 52.1 was higher than previously announced 51.6, but this It had no effect on trading in the euro. Obviously, the market is still under the impression of the statements of the ECB's intentions to continue easing policy at a time when the Central Bank shtatovskih going to start tightening. Today, nothing remarkable statistics EU has no plans to publish more interesting may be the political component, namely the ECB President M. Draghi in Frankfurt on the opening day of the European culture. If the chief of the main bank of the Eurozone will affect the subject of monetary policy and confirm their declarations about readiness to increase the promotion of the European economy, the single currency will continue its way down.


British Pound on Monday showed the most prominent among the majors, multidirectional volatility, but also, like the other major currencies, was closed down against the dollar. Support for sterling have strong data on manufacturing activity UK - PMI index rose to 55.5 in October from 51.8 in September, with expectations to see a decrease in 51.3.


However, the demand for the pound proved fleeting or lasting, strong resistance levels, which jumped steam cooled "the ardor of bulls", in addition to the caution of investors called standby important events of this week, which could influence the attitude towards the "cable". This meeting of the Bank of England's interest rate, whose results will be known on Thursday, and a report on the US labor coming on Friday. Today, the British news package will present yet another indicator of activity at this time of the construction sector. Forecasts suggest a decline again, it is expected that the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the construction sector shows 59.3 after 59.9 in September. If the facts are confirmed predictions, or the result will be worse than expected, it is possible to increase the pressure on the British currency. If, however, and this time there will be a positive surprise for the sterling, the British rise to new local highs against the "bugs".


The dollar / yen traded within the overall market sentiment and also remained in a narrow sideways. A slight pressure on the dollar in early trading Monday had events in the stock market of Japan, where there is a drop in the index Nikkei. However, European and American sessions of "green" leveled losses and was able to achieve a slight increase at the end of the day. Support for the "bugs" were the data on its own economy, improve the mood in the US stock markets and the grown yield "Treasuries" in the market of debt the state government.Today, Japan is not a working day, there is news, the yen will trade under the influence of external events and is likely to remain in the formed sideways, waiting for the main event of the week - a report on work in the United States.


Author: Arkady Nagiyev

Fundamental analysis of the currency market Forex4you


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