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Main » 2019 » March » 5 » Fundamental analysis and forecast of the course E URUSD 5/3/2019
Fundamental analysis and forecast of the course E URUSD 5/3/2019


The EUR / USD remains under pressure, and the second day in a row completes decline. The reasons for the formation of a local bearish movement in the market has not changed, traders continue to view e ollar as a more attractive asset for investment, against a background of economic information coming from regions. Recent data from Europe point to a continuation of negative trends, reducing the possibility of the beginning of the normalization process of interest rates by the ECB in the current year. According to experts in the near future time, the ECB may revise their forecasts for interest rates, economic growth, and to announce a new long-term refinancing program (LTRO).


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Even though the softening of rhetoric at the beginning of 2019, the Fed's policy is more aggressive. In 2018, the Fed spent four rate increases, and, despite a temporary pause, investors still expect at least one more rate hike this year. Serious differences in monetary policy implemented by the ECB and the Fed remain a medium-term priority for the dollar.

Today, the focus of investors in the first half of the day will be data on the service sector PMI. The main impact on the market will probably have a performance in Germany and the EU as a whole.

In the US, it will be published the same period, but a greater impact on the market may not have PMI manufacturing sector from the ISM. Experts predict more strong output data that can strengthen the dollar during the US trading session. In addition to the scheduled presentations today FOMC Rosengren and Kashkari.

On the chart EURUSD situation for the euro quotations develops n e best way. Unsuccessful attempt EURUSD buyers to gain a foothold above the level of 1.1400 provoked the development of a new bearish wave, which may soon be continued. Within days should first pay attention to the support level of 1.1320, the breakdown would be a strong signal of further development of the bearish movement for the purpose of EURUSD at 1.1260. As the nearest intra considering resistance level 1.1350.


  • Resistance Levels EURUSD: 1.1350, 1.1400, 1.1450.
  •  EURUSD support levels: 1.1320, 1.1260, 1.1220.
  • The main scenario - EURUSD correction to 1.1350 and 1.1260 to decline.
  • Alternative scenario - securing EURUSD above 1.1350 and rising to 1.1400.

In the forex market remains moderately negative news background, and on the EURUSD chart locally dominant bear trend. No reversal signals, so preference is given to sales that are worth looking at the level of 1.1350.  



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Based on materials FortFS




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