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Main » 2018 » May » 21 » Fundamental analysis and forecast of EUR / USD 21.05.2018
Fundamental analysis and forecast of EUR / USD 21.05.2018


According to the results of last week, almost all of the major currencies fell against the US dollar. Characteristically, the leader of the fall was the European single currency, which lost 1.44%.

As has been repeatedly pointed out, the US dollar was getting strong support from growth in yields on 10-year US Treasury yield, which is higher than 3%. With regard to macroeconomic data, in April US retail sales increased by 0.3%, after rising 0.6% the previous month. In principle, a good figure and the market reacted positively to the published data.


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But the growth of the eurozone economy, as expected, in the first quarter slowed and was only 0.4%, while in the fourth quarter GDP growth in the currency bloc rose by 0.7%. In truth, the past week has been deprived of the more important and meaningful reports.

This week, investors will be focused on the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. In addition, the expected publication of the PMI index and US consumer sentiment, as well as initial applications for unemployment benefits, and orders for durable goods.

The eurozone will do reports on the PMI, IFO index and the GDP of Germany, as well as an index of business activity in the manufacturing and service sectors.

And yet, the most important event for investors, in my opinion, will be the publication "minutes» FOMC. Market participants will once again look for signals about the likelihood of higher rates of increase in US interest rates. In the event of them, a stronger dollar will not only continue, but increase. If the market does not receive such signals, possibly short-term, most likely weakening of the USD correction, after which the US currency growth resumes.

At the very least, such a development of events demonstrates the technical picture for EUR / USD, to which the review right now and move on.


The graph EUR / USD Weekly


EURUSD graph


A week earlier, on the basis of a reversal candlestick pattern "Hammer" anticipated rate rise, however, this has not happened. The signal was false and was broken, which indicates the strong position of dollar bulls and relentless demand for the American currency.


Well, when the signals that appear against the trend, break it once again indicates the strength of the current trend and the high probability that it will be continued.

After the breakdown of 1.1822 support and care for the signed level 1.1800, it is expected that the next target will be the area 1.1735-1.1700. Somehow forgetting strong technical area 1.1750 / 40. But it is here that the market and stopped showing lows at 1.1749.

In addition to the designated technical area, support was 200 exponential moving average, which takes place at 1.1757. However, the 200 EMA certainly try to break through, and in this case, the next support could come in the area of ​​1.1695-1.1675, where the 89 EMA and the upper boundary of the cloud Ichimoku indicator.

If the pair will complete the current week at 200 and 89 exhibitors, and most importantly, within the Ichimoku cloud, further bearish scenario will become even more apparent. Regarding the levels of a key find support at 1.1553. Break of this level, in my opinion, will usher in a complete surrender evrobykov.


The graph EUR / USD Daily


Here, too, there was a scrap reversal candlestick pattern "Morning Star", and it also demonstrates the strength of the bearish trend. Trend - that's fine, but the corrective movement has not been canceled, but judging by the last three candles, a possibility of correction is high enough. In addition, the area of ​​1.1750-1.1700 pair repeatedly unfolded or change of direction, or corrective pullback.


Despite the bearish trend played out, to sell better after the exchange rate adjustment in the areas of 1.1820-1.1870 and / or 1.1910-1.1960. Of course, not the fact that for the open positions on the trend will these prices, so the earliest sales, you may want to look after lifting the zone 1.1790-1.1810.


On purchases, until the respective signals, it is better to wait a little while.


Successful trading!


Based on materials FFS




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