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Main » 2019 » July » 16 » Fundamental analysis and forecast of EUR / USD 16.07.2019: The focus of investors ZEW index of institutions and data on retail sales in the
Fundamental analysis and forecast of EUR / USD 16.07.2019: The focus of investors ZEW index of institutions and data on retail sales in the


The EUR / USD is trading near the lows of Monday waiting for the publication of important economic data from Europe and the United States.

Yesterday, the market was not important economic news, so the trades were calm enough. Pressure on the currency pair provided the statements of various international financial institutions that have revised their predictions on the future monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB. Analysts at UBS said on the eve of what is expected of two ECB interest rate cuts in 2019, 0.10% in September and December. The owl of all company Fitch Ratings said yesterday that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates is not as hard as it expected the financial markets since the statistics in the US remains strong. Therefore, on the background of changed market expectations the US dollar regained advantage over European currency.


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Today in Europe will focus indices ZEW institute in Germany. Experts predict output data weaker than the previous month, so in the first half of the day the EUR / USD will remain under pressure.

In the United States today is expected to publish data on industrial production and retail sales. Here too the forecasts of experts worse data for the previous reporting period. Also on Tuesday is scheduled speech by Fed Jerome Powell and members of the FOMC Kaplan, Bostic and Bowman.



On the EUR / USD chart per day were no significant changes. Trades extends in a range between the levels of 1.1240-1.1285. Today, we expect a retest the lower boundary of the range of movement and the resumption of EUR / USD up toward the 1.1300 level.  


resistance levels EUR / USD: 1.1300, 1.1345, 1.1405.

Levels of support for EUR / USD: 1.1240, 1.1200, 1.1130.

The main scenario - retest 1.1240 and the resumption of the EUR / USD upward.  

Alternative - the breakdown of support at 1.1240 and the decline in EUR / USD to 1.1200.


The market is dominated by locally bearish signals, so in the morning expect to reduce the EUR / USD quotes to support at 1.1240 where it is possible to consider intraday buying tool, in the hope of EUR / USD rise to 1.1300.   



EUR / USD forecast and analyst  FORTFS



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