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Main » 2018 » May » 16 » Fundamental analysis and forecast of EUR / USD 16.05.2018
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Fundamental analysis and forecast of EUR / USD 16.05.2018

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Well, apparently candlestick signals on the pair EUR / USD market intends to break. However, the fact of breaking up yet, so this is still just a guess.


Since the beginning of the week the US currency strengthening demonstrates, the main cause of which is the increase in the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds over 3%.

 

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Despite recent weak inflation data, due to which the strengthening of the dollar was suspended previously, subsequent statistics, especially the strong data on consumer spending, once again aroused interest among investors to the US currency. In such a situation, as it is impossible by the way, sounded the comments of some Fed officials about the advisability of 3-4 rate hikes this year.


As for yesterday's statistics from the eurozone and the US, it was mixed. Thus, industrial production in the eurozone rose by 0.5%, which is less than the expected 0.7%. The annualized rate was 3%, and also not held up to the forecast of 3.7%.


Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter Euro zone coincided with economists expectations and was 2.5%.


Retail sales in the United States grew in April seasonally adjusted to 0.3%. The volume of retail sales, excluding cars and fuel showed similar growth, which was below expectations, which amounted to an increase of 0.4%.


Overall, yesterday's statistics do not have a strong impact on the rate of EUR / USD. Rise in yields of US bonds and the reduction of tension in trade relations between the US and China - these are the fundamental factors that have pushed and continue to push up the rate of USD.


If you go to the technical factors, there is, in my opinion, there is a "borderline" situation.

 

H4 chart of EURUSD


After a couple yesterday met strong resistance at 1.1995, and established two expressed reversal doji candle, decline began. The inability of the euro / dollar to hold above the 50 simple moving average showed even more bearish on the instrument, resulting in the rate fell to lows of May 9, the support level of 1.1822. This technically and historically strong level of the last forces continues to support the couple and in the moment of this writing, eur / usd traded near 1.1837. However, bearish sentiment for the pair indicate that the most likely level of 1.1822 is broken, and the price is below.


If that happens, and the rate drops below the important 1.1800 mark significant, can be expected to fall in another very strong and no less important price zone 1.1735-1.1700. In this scenario, I do not rule out that the designated euro / dollar zone will try to adjust and roll back to the 1.1780, 1.1800 and 1.1820.


However, while the 1.1822 support is not broken, by this still remains a possibility bounce up, and it should be considered. Market sentiment is clearly in favor of the US currency and only the weak macro-economic reports from the United States or any important events and / or comments are able to change them.


Attempts to increase from the current price (1.1837) may be limited at 1.1910 already, which is itself a strong level, as well as 50 mA.

 

 

 

Based on materials FFS

 

 

 

Views: 9 | Added by: mik | Rating: 0.0/0
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