Currency pair EUR / USD now trading at lows area marked on the auction on Thursday. The pressure on the currency pair is now has the US dollar, whose index is trading with a score of 0.17%. The main driver of strengthening the dollar during yesterday's trading steel intermediate data on US GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2018. According to the report, compared with the previous quarter, growth slowed from 3.4% to 2.6%, but the final figures coincided with the expectations of experts. Thus deflator GDP increased by 2.0% vs. 1.7%. Investors are quite positively evaluated the data presented expecting preservation of the current rate of growth will allow the Fed to continue the process of moderate increase in interest rates. But, fast enough Fed Chairman Jerome Powell denied the speculation once again indicating that the regulator intends to take a pause in rate hikes. Powell noted the good state of the economy, but complained about the growing risks associated with the slowdown in the EU and the Chinese economy as well as high political uncertainty related to the trade negotiations between the US and China, as well as Brexit.
Today, the market expects the day saturated important economic news, so the volatility is likely to be increased. Already retail sales data have been published in Germany in January. The report was very positive, fixed increase of 3.3% vs. + 1.9% in. Later today will present data on the labor market and manufacturing sector PMI in Germany. Also today, the data will be presented on the EU labor market and the provisional figures for the consumer price index in the euro zone in February.
In the US, the focus will be on PMI manufacturing sector ISM and data on personal consumption expenditures.
The graph EUR / USD after another unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above 1.1400 reversal signal is formed in which one can expect development bearish wave, the main purpose for which the level becomes 1.1320. The change of priorities can occur only after the price fixates above 1.1400, as indicated by the EUR / USD exchange rate movement further towards 1.1500 level.
resistance levels EUR / USD: 1.1380, 1.1400, 1.1500.
Levels of support for EUR / USD: 1.1360, 1.1320, 1.1280.
The main scenario EUR / USD - decline to 1.1320.
Alternative EUR / USD - consolidation above 1.1400 and rising towards 1.1500.
News background remains mixed, while in the EUR / USD chart is dominated mainly signals pointing to a reversal of the price movement down. Therefore, preference should be given to sell the pair EUR / USD. Entry points to the position in EUR / USD should be sought in the range of 1.1380-1.1400.
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Based on materials FortFS