Week beginning bodes financial storms. On Monday and Tuesday, the market is waiting for the release of important news and statistics. However, on the first day of the week, March 12, you should pay attention to the report on the performance of the US federal budget, and on Tuesday, March 13 at the inflation data in the United States.
In February, inflation in the United States are expected to amount to 2.1% yoy, higher than the Fed's goals. In this regard, it is likely that the dollar will react to the growth of positive data on inflation, for many it will be a harbinger of higher interest rates.
On Wednesday, March 14, in the early morning international marketplaces will win back the statistics from China. Investors are waiting for a slowdown in industrial production in February, but a significant increase in retail sales. sales growth would indicate an increase in domestic consumption, but it can be a seasonal factor associated with the Chinese New Year celebration. The same evening, the data on retail sales in February will present States: after a decline in January of 0.3% is expected to increase by 0.2%, so this is the second factor in favor of the dollar next week.
On the same day it will be published totals for January industrial output in the euro area.
On Thursday, March 15, the meeting will hold a bank in Switzerland. USD / CHF The pair has long traded "sideways" and the statements of the regulator is unlikely to change the balance of positions on this day. US was to publish an index of manufacturing activity and reflect the demand for government bonds. In March, is expected to decline in business activity.
Friday will be the busiest day of the week and will give the participants a number of opportunities to make money. EU to publish data on inflation for February: On an annual basis is expected to increase from 1.2% to 1.3%. This is a positive outcome, so the euro on Friday to resume the fight against the dollar and try to get ahead.
US later will present statistics on the number of building permits issued in February, industrial production and labor market data. For all three indicators are expected to improve, so the second half of the day the dollar can win over the euro. In general we can say that the whole week will boost the US dollar. For the week, the euro / dollar may fall in the area of the mark 1.227. In the medium term, the currency pair will continue to trade in the "outset".
Ruble pair during the week will seek upward. This will contribute to volatility in oil prices and the strengthening of the alternate dollar and the euro. From the standpoint of technical analysis all natural, pair pushed from the bottom of the channel, wherein traded for more than six months and move upward. For the week, the dollar / ruble may reach the level of 57.5 rubles. for the "American", and the euro / ruble - to reach the mark of 71.3 rubles. per euro. Slightly support the ruble and the payment of excise tax on the profit of organizations in the middle of the week.
According to the materials of Alpari