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Main » 2016 » October » 2 » Forex. The forecast for today 03/10/2016: Investor, EUR / USD - the sale!
Forex. The forecast for today 03/10/2016: Investor, EUR / USD - the sale!


Forex. The forecast for today 03/10/2016: Investor, EUR / USD - the sale!

 Forex. Weather forecast on October 3, 2016


The main events forex today:

02.50 MSK. Japan: Predictive value of the index 'Tankan' for large enterprises of industrial sphere in the 4th quarter (previous value 6d; forecast 8). 
11.30 MSK. United Kingdom: PMI index for the manufacturing for September (the previous value of 53.3, forecast 52.1). 
17.00 MSK. US: ISM manufacturing index for September (the previous value of 49.4, forecast 50.4).


Forex. Currency pair EUR USD forecast EUR / USD today 10/03/2016

Two reasons for investors to sell the euro. 




The first reason , the differential yields of German and US 10-year government bonds in the credit market is reduced, it is a positive factor for sellers. Today at auction in the US ISM report will be released for the manufacturing sector, investors should not expect positive data on the background growth of the producer price index and the increase in factory orders. Production capacity increase in oil and gas sector, according to a report by Baker Hughes, this allows today rely on the yield of positive data. Against this backdrop, the yield spread may even be reduced, which has a positive impact on the quotes of greenbacks. 

The second reason is growing "appetite for risk" in the financial markets, it would put pressure on the euro quotes as funding currency. On Friday, the index of fear to the American and the Russian market declined by 5.2% and 2.7%, which is the signal on the flow of capital to risk assets today will support the equity markets. 

Euro Dollar recommendations : Investors in the euro to the US dollar today is worth to sell the pair EUR / USD Sell the growth of quotations to 1.1255 / 1.1285 and fixed Vat profit at the level of 1.1200.



Forex. The currency pair Pound Dollar forecast GBP / USD today 10/03/2016

Today, investors waiting for the pair Pound Dollar mixed background. On the debt market the profitability of British 10 -year government bonds lower against the American and German, which reduces the attractiveness of investments in the United Kingdom assets, and will put pressure on the British quotation. This pattern held in the currency market on Friday after the close of trading in the UK. However, raw material market ignored negative oilfield services company Baker Hughes, which indicates the presence of a large number of bulls in the market that will push oil prices up and have a positive impact on the value of sterling. According to Baker Hughes, for the last week in the US, Canada and Mexico, the number of drilling oil platforms increased by 7, 7, and 1 point, respectively. 


Pound Dollar recommendations : Today pair pound dollar investors should not expect sideways trading in the range 1.2920 -1.3020



Forex. Currency pair yen dollar forecast USD / JPY today 10/03/2016

Today in trading in Asia, investors should wait for the growth of quotations of the yen against the background of weak macroeconomic statistics from Japan. The negative dynamics of the index of producer prices and industrial PMI will not allow to count on a good indicator of the index 'Tankan' for large enterprises of industrial sphere in the 4th quarter.Against this background, probably decrease in quotations on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which will ensure the inflow of capital into the yen as a funding currency. But this decline, investors should use to build the "Long" for reasons of doom.

First , on Friday widened yield spread of US and Japanese 10-year government bonds after the publication of a negative report on inflation in Japan. In Japan, deflation for five consecutive months, and investors are counting on the fact that the Cabinet together with the Central Bank will take measures to eradicate this problem. 


Second , the world's leading stock markets closed Friday's "green zone", which indicates the growth of "risk appetite" and has traditionally supports the USD / JPY pair

Dollar Yen recommendations : Investors on the dollar and the yen today is to buy USD / JPY pair on the currency market Buy on decline of quotations to 101.10 / 100.70 and take profit at the level of 101.70.




Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst « FreshForex »

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