The forecast for the week 13 - 17 June:
Forex. The forecast rate of gold XAU / USD for the week
Traders on the yellow metal in the auction of the week waiting for a mixed background. Positive for quotations of gold is to reduce the "risk appetite".
At the auction last week's strong gains fear index VIX indicates capital flight from risky assets. Against this background, the capital can go into gold as a "safe haven."
But the fall of oil prices a negative factor for the precious metal, as in the country G - 7, reduced inflation expectations, and the XAU / USD gold is used as an inflation hedge. The last couple of days on the market, there is a strong product sales, it is positive for the greenback, as the cost of raw materials denominated in US dollars. What is good greenbacks for gold - bad, between the two instruments is a strong negative correlation.
Recommendations for gold for a week : Investors on the Gold, the new week, worth waiting for trade in a sideways channel in 1245 -1295.
Brent oil forecast for the week
Players of the oil market, the auction of the week there is every reason to expect reduction of quotations on profit taking on long positions. On January 20 this year, oil prices rose by 91% and it is likely investors on the negative news background will fix long positions. What is the negative news background? Last Friday, oil service company Baker Hughes has reported an increase in the number of drilling rigs in the United States and Canada on 3 and 16 units, respectively. For two weeks in a row, we see growth in the number of drilling rigs - 12 units.Last Wednesday, the US Department of Energy has reported an increase in oil production to a maximum of the last 18 weeks. Increase in the number of drilling rigs capable of once again cause an increase in oil production - oil companies profitable to increase production capacity, as the price of oil has risen strongly since the lows in January, while the majority of companies is a huge debt burden. In order not to go bankrupt - the debts must be serviced, but it needs to increase the level of production. This factor has traditionally puts pressure on the price of hydrocarbons.
Brent recommendation of the week : oil investors in the auction of the week is selling BRENT Sell on price increases to 50.80 / 52.00 and 48.50 at the close of the transaction.
S & P500 Index forecast for the week
For traders, the index SP500 main event of the new trading week, the US Federal Reserve meeting, which will take place on 15 June. The yield on 2-year Treasury note, which is closely correlated with the rate of the FED, indicates that changes in monetary policy should not be expected. Since the last meeting of the FED on April 27 - bond yields declined by 9 bp Investors are wondering what will the regulator with respect to the rate hike in the summer, and some forecasts for the next three years. Given the macro-economic statistics, which were published in the last month, from FED leadership should not expect a moderately positive comments, it will cause a rise in yields in Treasuries and will put pressure on the stock market. Yellen on his speech last Monday said that in the next few months, waiting for the acceleration of consumer spending, and this is a signal to the growth of GDP, and to an increase in inflation.
SP500 index recommendations for a week: Investors on the index of the new week is selling the Sell SP500 on the growth of prices for 2104/2115 and Target 2080.