The euro fell against the dollar by almost 80 pips from 1.1730 to 1.1650 after yesterday's meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy. The European regulator has not made any changes in its monetary policy.The ECB left its key interest rate at 0% APR, but also stressed that the asset purchase program will end in December (monthly volume purchase of assets will remain at the level of 30 billion euros before the end of September, and then will be reduced to 15 billion euros before the end of December. ) also, Mario Draghi during a press conference that the ECB maintains its positive view of the European economy and the risks remain balanced. ECB experts continue to expect GDP growth in 2018 will be about 2.1% in annual terms. ECB chief stressed that the growth of the European economy start to stabilize and that the slow pace of growth in the first half of 2018 are provisional. Yesterday, it was expected that at such rhetoric from the ECB depreciation of the pair EURUSD.
Today, according to the forex calendar, the following important makrostatisticheskie indicators will be published, which are important when trading in the forex market:
At 15:30 (GMT + 3) will be published the first estimate of US GDP growth for the second quarter of this year. It is expected that growth will be in the range of 4-4.2% per annum.
At 17:00 (GMT + 3), the index of US consumer confidence for July from the University of Michigan
EURUSD forecast today
On the four-hour timeframe (H4) EURUSD pair is stored within the "descending triangle":
The graph shows that after the last meeting of the European Central Bank, the EURUSD reversed from the upper line of the triangle, and went down and now slowly going toward the bottom line of the triangle (all of which I labeled a green ellipse on the chart). The bottom line of the triangle is near the level of 1.1530.
At hour timeframe (H1) EURUSD pair formed three peaks at approximately 1.1740:
All three of these peaks, they say that at the level of 1.1740 resistance is formed by a stable growth EURUSD on the hourly chart.
I suppose that now the pressure from the dollar to the euro will continue if the US GDP data will be good, but now EURUSD pair could test the 1.1600 level. In my opinion, if the US GDP for the II quarter of 2018 will be 3.5% in annual terms, it can be regarded as good and, most likely, it will positively affect the US dollar. Of course, if US GDP growth for the II quarter of 2018 will be significantly lower, then the Dollar may correct within the day and return to the resistance level at 1.1740.
It should be emphasized that neither H4, or on the H1 is no downward trend. Therefore, although the pair EURUSD «bearish" mood persists, it is necessary to understand that if someone has a short position should be on the alert - the downward trend is not and therefore need to be very careful.
At the time of writing the pair EURUSD is trading at 1.1645.
Forecast EUR / USD today Vesselin Petkov Alpari