Trading opportunities for the currency pair: Oil and NZD / USD formed pinbary. If pinbar work, then on a stronger dollar and lower oil prices, is likely to correct to 70.7%. Selling New Zealander best of 0,7078-0,7100 area. Less risks. Or, in the breakdown of 0.7010 low. Goal 1 - 0.6916, target 2 - 0.6814.Script to reduce canceled when closing the candle above 0.7147.
The latest idea for the currency pair NZD / USD came out May 30 . At the time of its publication the New Zealand dollar was quoted at 0.6690. On the daily TF formed truncated formation. It could be regarded as an end or a wedge running a correction in the form of a triangle. I expected output prices down to the lower boundary of the channel "1" at 0.6510. The idea is not even activated, because on Monday the price went up and passing the reference level of 0.6773 rushed to the upper boundary of the channel "1".
Strengthening New Zealand dollar contributed to several factors: rising in price of oil, the rise in prices for dairy products, the preservation of interest rates by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), and a general weakening of the US dollar after the release of disappointing US employment report on.
June 1st was held the 165th auction Global Dairy Trade (GDT). According to the latest results of the tenders Global Dairy Trade dairy price index rose by 3.4%. If the auction GDT 164 Index growth was recorded in all categories of dairy products, in addition to Cheddar and skimmed milk powder, then up to 165 trades, gained all products, except casein and whole milk powder. The average price of dairy products was $ 2,329 per tonne. The next auction will be held on 15 June.
At the meeting of 9 June 2016 the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided to keep interest rates at 2.25%. The decision was expected. The regulator said that the national currency exchange rate and high hopes for its decline. In the absence of the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar and rising inflation will increase the chances of a rate cut. Now the Central Bank need to see fresh data on inflation and GDP.
The price of oil last week rose to a mark of $ 52.83 to a decline in reserves and production, as well as the general weakening of the US dollar in the first half of the week.
Fig. 1 two-day timeframe. Data source: TradingView
Above is a two-day schedule. NZD / USD exchange rate rose to 0.6690 c level 0.7147. Price rebounded from the top of the channel "1". The dollar strengthened against the backdrop of risk aversion, which caused a new poll by the UK exit from the EU. At the end of the day fell to New Zealander, to 0.7050 dollar at 0.73%.
I deliberately squeezed to a two-day schedule. On it was formed pinbar with bovine body. Since it was formed in the upper part of the channel "1", then it can be considered a bearish signal. After the breakdown of the minimum candle 0.7015, I expect depreciation to at least 0.6916. A similar pinbar formed on the weekly chart for Brent. A drop below $ 49.70 will activate the bearish signal for the purpose of $ 47.12.
Note that after the increase in prices from 0.6236 to 0.6897 correction was 70.7%. If pinbar work, then on a stronger dollar and lower oil prices, is likely to correct to 70.7%. Selling New Zealander best of 0,7078-0,7100 area. Less risks. Or, in the breakdown of 0.7010 low. Goal 1 - 0.6916, target 2 - 0.6814. Script to reduce canceled when closing the candle above 0.7147.