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Main » 2016 » June » 13 » Forex. Short-term trading idea GBP / USD - bullish play: increase from 1.4122
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Forex. Short-term trading idea GBP / USD - bullish play: increase from 1.4122

 

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Trading opportunities for the currency pair: the idea is risky because of the upcoming referendum in the UK, which will be held on 23 June. It is not known what the polls will go before him. One can only say one thing, that volatility will remain high.

 

 

If you decide to work before the referendum, consider selling the pound from 1.4340 to 1.4122 for the purpose of buying and then to 1.4502. Work on cycles. Volumes should be minimal. Closing the daily candle above 1.4380 will cancel the idea. If the pound without a rollback will be discussed below, you should refrain from selling and buying closer to June 21. What is the price for this will be hard to say. Keep an eye on the dynamics of crosses.

 

 

Background:


The latest idea for the currency pair GBP / USD came out  on March 7 . At the time of publication of ideas pound was worth 1.4225. After a bullish engulfing viewed its strengthening to a level of 1.4565. Estimated level was reached in late April. Rate rose to 1.4769.

Fig. 1-week timeframe. Data source: TradingView

Five weeks of British traded in the range 1.4332 - 1.4769 (437 pips). It was formed due to conflicting polls on the exit of Great Britain from the EU. On Friday, June 10 after the publication of the results of the next survey the price went down "2" of the channel. Buyers failed to break the bearish trend and close above 1.4840.


According to a survey of ORB to the newspaper The Independent, 55% of respondents were in favor of the fact that the country out of the EU, 45% - for the preservation.


On Saturday «The Sunday Times» newspaper published the results of a survey company YouGov. 43% of respondents are ready to vote on referenudme June 23 to withdraw from the EU, 42% - for the preservation of the membership.


Not to say the officials, the media bought polls not only to increase the traffic on their resources, but also to manipulate the exchange rate of the British pound. After all, knowing the reaction of the pound at the polls, when and how will the survey, you can pre-buy / sell the pound and this make a decent amount of money.


We do not know how the negotiations are going on the British authorities to preserve the membership. At the weekend, the BBC reported on the statement of Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Vallstrem. She said that the victory of supporters of the British exit from the EU will start a domino effect. In case of the UK from the European Union, the EU could fall apart. And if Britain left the EU, other countries of the European Union want to receive special conditions, which will receive the British authorities. High volatility in the pairs with the pound will continue until 23 June.

Fig. Day 2 TF. Data source: TradingView

"Double top" above the level of 1.47 was formed. The difference of 30 points between the peaks for minor day timeframe. On Friday, the price came out of the channel "1".


Note that between the last two bases of the distance is 27 days. If a minimum 1.4332 on May 13, add 27 days, we get the reversal date on 21 June. Rebound may occur on the levels of 1.4122 and 1.3965. June 23 will hold a referendum. Event significant. If Britain left the EU, the rate quickly return to 1.4835.


From Friday's closing level of 1.4250 to 1.4122 range is 128 points. From the estimated minimum of 1.4122 to 1.4502 range of the forecast level of 380 points.


On Monday, the pound opened lower. Asian participants work out Friday's events. On this day courses often move against Friday. Therefore, if you decide to work before the referendum, consider sales from 1.4340 to 1.4122 for the purpose of buying and then to 1.4502. Work on cycles. Volumes should be minimal. Closing the daily candle above 1.4380 will cancel the idea. If the pound without a rollback will be discussed below, you should refrain from selling and buying closer to June 21. What is the price for this will be hard to say. Keep an eye on the dynamics of crosses. 

 

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