Trading opportunities for the currency pair: Weekly TF formed pinbar. Given that the report COT large speculators increased their long positions, counting two-level target - 1.1320 and 1,1215.Otskok from 1.1320 would indicate a willingness to go the market to 1.1730. In the fall to 1.1215 would increase risks to get away to the lower boundary of the channel 1.1120. Price after pinbara can just leave down, and can begin the correction in the range of 30 to 61.8% of the candle range. Script to reduce canceled at the close of the weekly candle above 1.1615.
The latest idea on the currency pair EUR / USD came out March 28. At the time of publication of the review, EUR / USD traded at 1.1164. The euro strayed from the trend line. On expectations of further increase of US Fed rates from the single currency expected weakening of the US dollar to 1.0957 to the 10-11 April this year.
The Fed did not cut rates because of weak US data and revised their number increases in the current year downwards. The idea turned out to be unprofitable. After the breakdown of the trend line and the long-term consolidation of the euro / dollar rose to 1.1615. The euro strengthened against the background of falling European stock markets and the growth of the euro zone producer prices in March. The price was above $ 1.16 is not more than 20 minutes. The euro fell after the commodity currencies after the release of weak statistics from China and the RBA decision to lower the interest rate at 0.25%.
On the weekly period formed pinbar - signal to euro sales. It can not be ignored. Look at the graph below. On it I highlighted last pinbary. In February 2015, the euro fell after pinbara two weeks. In August 2015 the pair was trading six weeks in a sideways trend until October 2015 did not form new pinbar. After six weeks the flat, then the rate decreased six weeks.
On Friday evrobykov had a chance to close above 1.15 on the weak for the US labor market data. The US unemployment rate in April remained at the March level of 5%. The number of jobs in non-agricultural sectors of the economy increased by 160 thousand vs. 195 thousand the March rate of employment growth in non-agricultural industries was revised downward -. To 208 thousand from 215 thousand jobs.
On the news the euro / dollar rose to 1.1479 and closing trades back to the level of 1.1400. Price strayed from the upper boundary of the channel. I personally do not understand the reaction of traders report. We can only say that they do not want to sell the dollar right now. If the signal on pinbaru work, then as a goal, you can see the level of 1.1215.
According to the latest report on the commodity Futures Trading Commission, evrobyki configured to test the level of 1.1730. According to the latest report COT (Commitments of Traders) for the week ending last Tuesday (3 May), large speculators (NON-COMMERCIAL) cut short positions at 5,281 contracts to 126,954, and increased long positions on 10,024 contracts, up to 108 974. The net short position of 17,980 contracts.
Small speculators increased their long and short positions in 4767 and 4677 respectively. The net short position on the euro is 6542 contracts.
The increase in long positions and brings turmoil. In the group of large speculators increased the number of positions covered at 10,525 contracts, up to 54 048. The coating is both a trader holds long and short positions (lock). The increase by this index indicates uncertainty in the euro / dollar. At any time, traders can open locks, we will see a significant increase in either column, Long, or Short.
As you can see pinbaru drop up to two levels of 1.1320 and 1.1215. Rebound from 1.1320 would indicate a willingness to go the market to 1.1730. In the fall to 1.1215 would increase risks to get away to the lower boundary of the channel 1.1120 (channel line is dark in color).