For a week, from 11 to 18 August, the currency markets of developing countries remained mostly in the "green" zone of the optimism. However, the optimism of many currency traders discreet, showed a sharp increase not so much currency. At the same time relieving the currencies of developing countries and shifts in the dollar at the forex traders, especially as there is no interest.
Leaders of growth during this period was the Turkish lira (+ 1.64%) and Mexican peso (+ 1.52%), which a long time did not show growth of more than 1%. The week is also a good idea rose to the dollar currency of the CIS countries: Kazakhstan Tenge (+ 0.79%), the Russian ruble (+ 0.76%) and Azerbaijani manat (+ 0.25%). Also rose against the dollar Indian rupee (0.17%) and Chinese yuan (0.12%).
Cheaper dollar, though not strong, the South African rand (-0.76%) and Brazilian real (-0.55%).
In the Turkish market, first of all, Russia expects the abolition of sanctions in the fourth quarter, which creates optimism. In addition, the unemployment figures for the last quarter showed that the unemployment rate in Turkey is 9.4% of the population, which is slightly more than in the previous quarter (9.3% of the population).However, the market sees it, most likely as a temporary phenomenon, and not too critical for the country's economy.
In Russia, the trade surplus increased by 7.6% in June compared to May, and totaled $ 8.1 billion, which exceeded market expectations, predicts a slight decrease this figure to $ 7.46 billion. The unemployment rate in July decreased and amounted to 5.3% of the population (June unemployment rate was at a level of 5.4% of the population). The data were better than the market forecast, it is expected that in July the unemployment rate to remain unchanged compared with June. Statistics proved to be positive for the ruble.
In Mexico, the central bank left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%. The decision was predictable and expected by the market. Thus, the Central Bank said that deflation in Mexico today is not on the agenda. Industrial production in Mexico in June increased by 0.6% year on year, which also coincided with the market forecast.These contributed to the appreciation of the peso against the dollar.
In India, industrial production in June increased by 2.1% year on year, which exceeded market expectations (+ 1.5%) and appeared significantly higher index of June (+ 1.2% yoy). In relation to June, in July, industrial production grew by 0.9%, in line with market expectations. These were positive for the rupee exchange rate.
In South Africa, retail sales rose 1.7% in June, which was well below the May values (up 4.5%) and below the market forecast (+ 3.8%). These have a negative impact on the exchange rate of the rand against the dollar.
Kazakhstan Tenge exchange rate grows against the backdrop of rising oil and tightening of fiscal policy in the country. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev's visit to Russia and met with Vladimir Putin said the strengthening of political and economic cooperation between the two countries, including - in the field of energy, and this news creates an additional positive background in the foreign exchange market.
Calendar of future events
Monday, August 22 - Mexico's GDP for the second quarter.
Tuesday, August 23 - the central bank's decision on interest rates in Turkey (14:00 GMT + 3).
We expect corridor movement pair dollar / ruble at levels 63-65, and the euro / ruble - 71,5-72,5. At the rate of the tenge against the dollar and the euro is limited to our forecast ranges 342-344 tenge per dollar and 385-388 tenge per euro. From the Brazilian real, we expect trading within 3,13-3,2 reais per dollar.