GBPUSD currency pair chart on the four-hour time frame continues to remain within the descending movement:
Currently GBPUSD once again tries to rise to the trend line. All this suggests that H4 «bearish" sentiment in the currency pair is maintained. However, the sell signal in my understanding, not yet.
It should be assumed that a very important role for the currency pair will play a meeting of Federal Reserve monetary policy, the results of which will be published in Wednesday night's 21:00 (GMT + 3), and, of course, the Bank of England meeting, which will take place on Thursday. The Bank of England will publish its decision on monetary policy at 14:00 (GMT + 3). It is assumed that the key interest rate will be increased by 25 bp. n. with 0.50% per annum to 0.75% per annum.
Recall that in May, the Bank of England in its Inflation Report pointed to a possible increase in key interest rates in the III quarter of 2018:
It is likely that this increase could occur this week.
It is expected that financial markets will not be thrilled with the increase of the key interest rate in the UK, if it happens. I suppose that in the context of weak economic growth in the UK, which was observed in the first half of the year (according to the ONS data, in I quarter of 2018, GDP grew by 1.7% in annual terms, it is expected that GDP growth vo II kvartale 2018 will be in the the range of 1.4-1.6% per annum), with the tightening of monetary policy may correct the British pound.
But do not open the deal to sell in a pair GBPUSD on H4 not earlier than the end of the meeting of the Bank of England and only if the downtrend resumes. Earlier, I also wrote that the trajectory of GBPUSD pair is determined, most likely after a meeting of the British regulator.
At the time of writing, the GBPUSD is trading at 1.3120.
Forecast Pound Dollar Vesselin Petkov Alpari