Results of the last trading day:

In Monday, March 5, in the euro auction ended a slight increase. The euro rebounded to 1.2349 after falling to 1.2269. The dollar has not oklemalsya States after the introduction of import duties on steel and aluminum, so the weakness of the dollar evrobyki quickly intercept the initiative in their hands.  

Also, a positive backdrop for European currencies has created by his statements the Prime Minister T. Mae. She said that is close to reaching an agreement on a transitional period for Brekzit. Strengthening of the British against the dollar had a positive impact on other pairs with the dollar.

Published statistics:

index of business activity in the United States Institute of Management Service in February amounted to 59.5 (forecast was 59.1, previous 59.9).

Planned statistics (GMT +3):

At 1115 Switzerland will introduce the consumer price index for February.

At 16:30 he will make a speech FOMC member William Dudley.

At 18:00 Canada will release PMI managers from Ivey in February, while the United States reported on the changes in industrial orders in January.

Fig. 1 euro / dollar, hour period. Data source: TradingView

On Monday, instead of V - model, formed a W - model. Line Lb and 67 degrees were the support for buyers. Overall expectations for yesterday's movement justified.

The focus of US trade policy remains this week. Many countries have expressed concern about the US actions in the matter of regulation of trade relations. D.Tramp through its Twitter has made it clear that he does not care of their concerns.

For the euro the main event of the week will be the ECB meeting with a press conference M.Dragi. As always, the market participants will expect it hints at curtailing QE.

Tuesday forecast forward to the formation of V - model with a minimum on the 45th degree. Given the results of the Italian elections, the euro may fall to 67 degrees on Monday.

If the forecast is established and the market closes on Tuesday in the area 1,2353-1,2360, the environment is likely to rise to 1.2440. Just before the ECB meeting and Friday's NFP.

Vladislav Antonov Alpari