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Main » 2016 » July » 31 » Forex. Forecast for week 01 - August 5, 2016: Brent, XAU / USD, S & P500
Forex. Forecast for week 01 - August 5, 2016: Brent, XAU / USD, S & P500



XAU / USD: Gold forecast for the week

On the first trading day of the week the precious metal may demonstrate moderate growth of quotations on the background for the US currency correction due to weak GDP data for the second quarter. However, then the gold may come under a wave of sales due to lower inflation expectations in the G-7 countries. On an inflation low last week said US and Fed Bank of Japan, and earlier about this trend and say ECB officials and the Bank of England. And if inflation expectations fall, and there is no need to hedge inflation risks through gold. 



Oil prices in July showed a strong drop, which is a negative factor for the yellow metal as both a tool traditionally show a strong direct correlation. 

Gold recommendation of the week: Investors should sell the metal on the growth of quotations Sell to 1355/1368 and take profit around 1339.



Brent: oil forecast for the week

Following July quotes black gold showed a decline of 12.9%, the highest level in the current year. Investors are scared slowdown in the world economy, as well as the increase in oil and gasoline production in the United States. Oilfield services company Baker Hughes once again reported about the increasing number of oil rigs in the United States and Canada increased by 3 and 12 units, respectively. Total results of July the number of drilling in these countries increased by 33 and 25 points respectively. Oil companies, especially slantseviki, increase production capacity, as in the first half of the year, oil prices showed a steady increase. Gasoline inventories in the first two summer months in the United States increased by 2.83 million. barrels despite the driving season, when traditionally there has been increased demand for gasoline and, accordingly, reduction in inventory volumes. A year ago at this time fuel inventories fell by 3.56 million. Barrels. Thus, all the factors are now playing against the Bulls on the short-term growth of quotations is necessary to build up short positions. In my opinion, during August we will see testing the psychological level of $ 40 / barrel, which implies a downside potential of 7.7%. 


Oil recommendations: Investors in the new week is selling BRENT Sell on the growth of quotations in the area of 43.65 / 44.60 and take profit around 41.90 .



S & P500: the forecast for the week

The media often frighten traders that trade in August is very dangerous in the stock markets, as we always see a strong drop in prices. If you look at the statistics of the last 15 years, the last summer month downtrend on the index S & P500 was observed in 6 cases, accounting for 40% probability. It turns out that the US stock market in most cases shows a very different dynamic than we presented media. What we can see in August 2016? In my opinion, in the first week of the month, we will observe the smooth growth of quotations for three reasons. First, many companies have reported better than the consensus forecast in the second quarter, which is a short-term positive factor. Second, the credit market yield of Treasury bonds shows a decrease, which reduces the attractiveness of investments in debt instruments. equity and bond market traditionally compete for funds from investors, and low bond yields contributes to capital inflows in the stock market. Third, the index of "fear" the VIX finished the last trading day of July in the index decline 6.68%, which indicates a high "risk appetite" of investors. 


SP500 recommendations: Investors should buy Buy index decrease in quotations to 2161/2150 and take profits around 2180.




Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst « FreshForex »

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