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Main » 2016 » August » 30 » Forex forecast for today 31.08.2016: USD - the trend is gaining momentum!
Forex forecast for today 31.08.2016: USD - the trend is gaining momentum!



Forex. Weather August 31, 2016


The main event for traders today:

12.00 MSK. Eurozone: Consumer Price Index for August (the previous value of 0.2% y / y; the forecast of 0.3% y / y).

15.15 MSK. USA: Change the number of employees from ADP in August (the previous value of 179K; 173K forecast).

17:30 MSK. US data on crude oil inventories from the Department of Energy in August (previous value 2,501M; 1,310M forecast).


Forex forecast the currency pair EUR / USD today 08/31/2016


In a couple of euros to the dollar grows downward trend in the currency market, and in this regard, traders should only open Sell position.



On the eve of investors in the euro pleased his positive report on consumer confidence Conference Board: total score came on a maximum in September 2015. Why this release is important? Because it allows us to understand what can come out data on the Non Farm labor market on Friday 2 September. The strong growth of this indicator signals a positive employment data, it will support the US currency, and not just in the short term, and until the Fed meeting on 21 September. FOMC have repeatedly heard claims that the regulator will closely follow the data on employment in the case of strong reports, the committee is ready to raise interest rates. In the credit markets, the yield spread of German and US 10-year government bonds is reduced, it increases the attractiveness of investing in US assets. Do not leave without attention and report on inflation in the EU in August. Yesterday's data from Germany showed a moderate growth rate and CPI today is to wait for the pan-European level CPI consensus forecast, it will not have the strong support of Euro-currency, because the market has already priced this scenario in quotes. 

EUR / USD recommendation : Investors on the euro / dollar is now the foreign exchange market is to sell the pair EUR / USD on the growth of quotations of the Sell to 1.1165 / 1.1200 and take profit at the level of 1.1100.



Forex forecast the currency pair GBP / USD GBP / USD today 08/31/2016


The British currency in the pair with the American past two trading days on the Forex currency market traded in a narrow range, which is probably the largest market participants are gaining positions in sales and as soon as the portfolio positions will be created, we will see a strong downward movement. Why down instead of up? Two reasons for the outbound movement. 


First , investors continues to make positive statistics from the US, and vice versa statistics from Albion goes negative.The number of approved applications for mortgage loan in July fell by 5% m / m, to the level of 60.9 thousand., The lowest since December 2014. Thus, the conclusion that fears around Brexit saved, it will continue to exert pressure on the sterling. In the credit markets, the yield on 10-year British government bonds decreased in relation to the German and American, it reduces the attractiveness of investments in the Kingdom of assets. 


Second , there are the commodity market sell-off, it will reflect positively on the value of the dollar, as the raw material is quoted in dollars. Sales are on all fronts: the leaders of falling oil and metals. 


GBP / USD recommendation : pound in a pair of investors with US currency today in the forex market is a pair GBP / USD on the Sell growth of quotations to 1.3100 / 1.3140 and take profit at the level of 1.3020.



Forex forecast the currency pair USD JPY USD / JPY today 08/31/2016


Today, the pair USD / JPY investors should not expect sideways trading. On the one hand, on Tuesday, the US stock market experienced growth of pessimism, it is a positive factor for the yen as a funding currency in the carry trade №1 operations. Reducing the "risk appetite" can throw a pair on the 102 figure. This is also indicated by the dynamics of the debt market: the yield differential of US and Japanese 10-year government bonds is reduced, which reduces the attractiveness of investing in US assets. However, today is probably to wait for the positive report on employment in the US private sector from the ADP, it will strengthen the strong expectations for Friday's release of the labor market and cause investors to continue the recruitment process for long positions. The main idea in this currency pair for the next month - it is possible volatile monetary policy the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. From the first players are waiting for action to increase the dollar. From Second expect measures to devalue the yen. Accordingly, the positive US reports strengthen these expectations and traders have no other choice but to open positions Buy. 


USD / JPY recommendations : traders on the dollar against the yen in the currency market today is worth waiting for the flat in the range of 102.20 -103.50





Aleksandr Goryachev

Analyst « FreshForex »

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