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Main » 2015 » September » 30 » Forex forecast for today 30 September 2015: "Bulls" can not - "Bears" do not want.
Forex forecast for today 30 September 2015: "Bulls" can not - "Bears" do not want.

Forex Forecast September 30, 2015 EUR / USD

The euro dollar EUR / USD in yesterday's trading the forex market, against the closure of operations carry trade, which supported the demand for the euro grew by 0.17%. Pound Dollar GBP / USD due to lower profitability of British government bonds to their German and American counterparts closed with a minus of 0.1%.Dollar Yen USD / JPY in connection with the sale on the stock exchanges of the world who have supported demand for Japanese yen decreased by 0.3%.



Events of the currency market, which should pay attention:


02.50 MSK. Japan: Retail Sales for August (the previous value of 1.6% y / y, forecast 1.3% y / y).

02.50 MSK. Japan: Preliminary data on the volume of industrial production in August (the previous value of -0.8% m / m forecast 1.1% m / m).

11.30 MSK. United Kingdom: The balance of the current account balance of payments for the 2nd quarter (previous value -26.5B; forecast -22.3B).

12.00 MSK. Eurozone: Evaluation of the consumer price index for September (the previous value of 0.1% y / y; the forecast of 0.0% y / y).

12.00 MSK. Eurozone: Unemployment rate in August (the previous value of 10.9%, 10.9% forecast).

15.15 MSK. US: Change in the number of employees from ADP for September (the previous value of 190K; forecast 191K).


Forex forecast for the euro dollar The EUR / USD today 09/30/2015

Today forex trading, the euro against the dollar, traders should wait for the predominance of sellers. Released yesterday, the release of negative inflation in Germany indicates that the present rate Eurozone CPI will be at least at the level of the median forecasts, and how high will go into negative territory compared to the same period last year. In Europe, the weak data on consumer confidence indicator confirms the existence of a negative trend. In this regard, forex (forex), probably soon appearance of rumors on the topic of enlargement package of incentives from the European Bank. B. Constancio vice president of the European Central Bank has repeatedly stated that the size of the QE program is significantly lower than in Japan and the US, and can not help the regulator to achieve the goal. In the banking sector in Europe last 6 months there is an increase in lending, but current levels are still very low for the increasing inflationary pressures. Prices for Brent, despite the positive market conditions confidently entrenched below $ 50 / barrel, and against this background the conclusion that the oil market is preparing for a decrease in the minimum levels of the year. Together, all these factors will put pressure on the euro currency exchange rate before the end of this year. But negative on the leading stock markets of the world will contribute to the gradual decline of the euro dollar EUR / USD, as the sale of shares will support the demand for the euro as a funding currency. Although yesterday the market in Europe and there was an increase, but the leaders were defensive sectors: municipal and consumer goods, indicating low demand for "risk assets" on the part of institutional investors. 

Forex. Trading recommendations for the euro dollar (EUROUSD): Today traders for trading, the euro dollar pair is worth waiting for trade sideways channel 1.1200-1.1330.

Support and resistance levels Euro Dollar: support levels 1.1269 - 1.1216 and resistance levels: 1.1303-1.1373.

Forex. Trading recommendations for the euro dollar (EUROUSD)


Forex forecast for the pound dollar the GBP / USD today 09/30/2015

Today, in the first half of trading on the forex market, the sterling may demonstrate strength. These National Statistics Office the UK balance of payments for the second quarter, traders can present a pleasant surprise. In England, in the second quarter there was a decrease of the negative balance of trade, and the growth of foreign exchange reserves of the Bank of England. Such dynamics indicates contraction of the negative balance of payments, which is positive for the British. Expanding the yield differential between British and German government bonds, also kratkosroke support the pound. Although the growth of quotations of sterling traders should be used to build short positions as during the day is likely to wait for the moderately positive data on employment from the agency ADP. Strong data on consumer confidence (the maximum for the last 4 months) released yesterday in the United States, confirm the high rate of economic growth. 

Forex. Trading recommendations for the pair Pound Dollar (GBPUSD): Today, pound traders paired with American is to open sales Sell the growth rate of the pound to the dollar 1.5199 / 1.5250 and 1.5137 at Target.

The levels for the pair GBP / USD: Support levels: 1.5101 - 1.5052 and resistance levels: 1.5169- 1.5206.

Forex. Trading recommendations for the pair Pound Dollar (GBPUSD)


Forex forecast of the dollar, the yen USD / JPY today 09/30/2015

Forex traders today is worth waiting for the depreciation of the dollar, the yen. Japan may please the participants of positive macroeconomic data. Over the summer, it has accelerated the pace of growth of salaries, which indicates an increase in consumer spending. In July, the unemployment rate fell to 0.1%, to the level of 3.3%, which also indicates the growth of personal consumption. Against this backdrop, traders should wait for the release of positive data on retail sales. The increase of the production sector PMI indicates growth of industrial production. The negative dynamics on the world's leading stock exchanges will support the demand for the Japanese yen as a funding currency. In this regard, investors should probably wait for the depreciation of the dollar, the yen to 119.20 / 118.95. As already mentioned, at the auction in the United States is likely to wait for the positive employment data from ADP, which will support the American greenbacks. 

Forex. Trading recommendations for the pair dollar yen (USDJPY): Today, the foreign exchange market the dollar yen pair traders waiting flat is in the range of 119.00-120.30. 

Support and resistance levels Dollar Yen: support levels: 119.29 - 118.98 and resistance levels: 120.09 - 120.36.

Forex. Trading recommendations for the pair dollar yen (USDJPY)

Alexander Goryachev

Analyst «FreshForex»



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