Forex. Weather August 30, 2016
Traders Highlights today:
02.30 MSK. Japan: Changes in the level of household expenditure volume for July (the previous value of -2.2% y / y; the forecast -1.3% y / y).
15.00 MSK. Germany: Consumer Price Index for August (the previous value of 0.3% m / m forecast 0.1% m / m).
17:00 MSK. United States: consumer confidence indicator for August (the previous value of 97.3, forecast 97.2).
Forex forecast the currency pair EUR / USD EUR / USD today 08/30/2016
After yesterday released US data on expenditure on personal consumption, many of the media quickly came to the conclusion that the Fed may not raise rates in the current environment, and in this regard, do not expect the dollar to strengthen. Is it so?
Rather, the report should be classified as positive. Since the beginning of this year the index does not fall below the level of 1.6% y / y. In 2015, in this period, the indicator was at 1.3% y / y. As we can see, the growth rate has accelerated, it is a signal about the growth of the economy. The same media say the deflator of personal consumption expenditure is reduced, and it is a favorite indicator of the Fed. Fed closely monitors this indicator, but it was almost a year in 2015 to 0.2% y / y and only reached the level of 0.5% y / y, which did not prevent the FED to increase interest rates in November. Now the figure at 0.8% y / y. Today, investors in the euro in the second half of trading on the foreign exchange market is worth paying attention to the preliminary data on inflation in Germany in August. Leading indicators point to yield data within the median forecasts. The growth of consumer confidence on the background of increase in average earnings indicate a possible increase in consumer prices. But gasoline prices during the summer showing a decrease, that will restrain inflation.
EUR / USD recommendation : market participants who invest in the euro today is to sell the pair EUR / USD on the growth of quotations of the Sell to 1,122 0 / 1.1250 and take profit at the level of 1.1155.
Forex forecast the currency pair GBP / USD GBP / USD today 08/30/2016
The appreciation of the pair Pound Dollar in yesterday's trading in the US, more correction, which is used to build short positions Sell for two reasons.
First , today, America may please investors a positive report on consumer confidence from the CB. This last three months, the indicator shows a steady positive trend against the background of growth of income and employment of US citizens. Growth in consumer spending can count on the continuation of a positive trend, it will support the greenback.
Second , growth of the dollar have a negative impact on the price of oil, since oil prices are denominated in US currency. It happened in the currency market is that once the oil shows a decline, the downward trend for the GBP / USD pair is accelerated.
GBP / USD recommendation : Today, investors in British currency in the forex trading, it is necessary to sell the pair GBP / USD on the Sell growth of quotations to 1.3140 / 1.3180 and take profit at the level of 1.3060.
Forex forecast the currency pair USD / JPY USD / JPY today 08/30/2016
Today investors on a pair of dollar yen in Asian trade trend for the pair will determine the details of expenditures of households in Japan in July. This indicator is closely correlated with GDP, and strongly influences the pair dollar / yen.Decrease index of consumer confidence, together with the fall in inflation, indicating the continuation of the negative dynamics of this important macroeconomic indicators. In this context, we will see a new wave of growth of quotations of the pair USD / JPY. As noted above, in the second half of trading on the currency market, in the US should not expect a moderately positive release Conference Board, which will support the dollar So, today on macroeconomic statistics from the US and Japan, new multidirectional dynamics, it leaves investors with no choice how to build long positions. Another positive for the dollar yen pair - it is at least moderate, but still demand for riskier assets. Stock exchanges in Europe and North America have completed Monday in the "green zone", it is a negative factor for the yen as a funding currency.
USD / JPY recommendations: Investors on the dollar in tandem with the greenback today on the Forex market, it is worth buying a pair Buy on the growth of quotations in the area of 101.80 / 101.45 and take profit at the level of 102.35.
Analyst « FreshForex »