Forex weather on February 28, 2018
The main news today:
13:00 MSK. Eurozone: Consumer Price Index for February (the previous value of 1.3% y / y, forecast 1.2% y / y).
18.30 MSK. US data on crude oil inventories from the Energy Department.
Forex euro dollar forecast EUR / USD at today 28/02/2018
Traders on the EUR / USD are three reasons for euro sales.
The first reason, it is possible the output weak report on inflation in the EU in February. On the eve of such data from Germany were much worse than expected. It affects the growth of a strong euro. Next week will be a meeting of the ECB, and Mario Draghi is likely to celebrate this factor.
The second reason, the yield of the German 10-year bonds on the bond market is reduced to the English and American papers, it will greatly affect the rate of the euro.
The third reason, active sale of the gold market participants, it is just as negative for the currency of the Old World because of the strong correlation of the two instruments.
EUR / USD recommendation: Sell 1,2239 / 1,2262 and take profit 1,2179.
Forex Pound Dollar exchange rate forecast GBP / USD today 02/28/2018
Today, the players on the GBP / USD worth buying the British on the positive credit market. The yield on 10-year securities Albion grows to German and US bonds, it can support the sterling. In his speech, Bernanke yesterday there was no hint of a four-fold rise in interest rates, it will keep on American growth. Some investors were expecting a more aggressive comments by D. Powell, but the head of FED said that it is necessary to strike a balance between avoiding economic overheating and inflation to approach the level of two percent on a sustained basis. To paraphrase into simple language, it turns out that the Fed does not want to raise rates quickly, for fear of falling economy. And if so, then the central bank will raise rates cautiously in the current year, which will not be able to provide strong support for the dollar, since this factor is already fully taken into account by the market. For the growth of the dollar need surprises, which is currently not and still do not know when they will appear.
GBP / USD recommendation: Buy 1,3903 / 1,3877 and take profit 1,3945.
Forex dollar yen forecast USD / JPY today 02/28/2018
Today, the players on USD / JPY waiting for a mixed background. On the one hand, possible growth rate USD / JPY on the background of positive dynamics of the debt market, where the yield differential of 10-year US and Japanese securities updated maximum level over the past two weeks. On the other hand, the US stock market index of "fear" on the eve of the VIX showed an increase of 15%, which indicates a possible outflow of capital from risky assets. For the Japanese yen as the funding currency №1 in the carry trade, it can be a positive signal. It is difficult to understand, that will have a decisive influence on the course of trading.
USD / JPY recommendation: flat 106,70-107,70.
Company analyst FreshForex